Bet on the Trump Mexico Tariffs: Market Says it Won't Be Happening

The betting market Polymarket this week released odds on whether President-Elect Donald Trump will impose tariffs on Mexico following his Truth Social post saying he will do just that.

"On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders," Trump said on Monday.

Mexico and Canada are two of the biggest exporters of fresh fruit and vegetables to the U.S. In 2022, Mexico supplied 51% of fresh fruit and 69% of fresh vegetables imported by value into the U.S., while Canada supplied 2% of fresh fruit and 20% of fresh vegetables.

Before the election, about 7 in 10 voters said they were very concerned about the cost of food, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 120,000 voters.

Trump's Full Statement

The President-Elect made his statement via his social media platform, Truth Social.

"As everyone is aware, thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before. Right now a Caravan coming from Mexico, composed of thousands of people, seems to be unstoppable in its quest to come through our currently Open Border. On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders. This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country! Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!"

Response From Mexico, Canada

After Trump made his tariff threat, he spoke to Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for about 10 minutes, discussing trade and border security, a Canadian government official told the BBC. They had a "good discussion", the source said.

Both countries responded more forcefully in public.

"One tariff will follow another in response and so on, until we put our common businesses at risk," Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said in a letter to Trump, which she read aloud in a press conference, warning that tariffs would cause inflation and job losses in both countries.

"President Trump, threats and tariffs are not the way to address the migration phenomenon or drug consumption in the United States. What is needed is cooperation and mutual understanding to tackle these significant challenges. For every tariff, there will be a countermeasure, and so on until we jeopardize shared businesses. Yes, shared businesses. For example, some of Mexico's main exporters to the United States are General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford Motor Company, which established operations in Mexico 80 years ago. Why impose a tax that puts them at risk? This is unacceptable and would result in inflation and job losses for both the United States and Mexico".

Mexico threatens retaliatory tariffs.

Exports to the US make up almost a third of Mexico's GDP -- 29%. While US exports to Mexico make up 1.1% of our GDP.

I don't think they're going to win this one https://t.co/uQtDc4xydx

— Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) November 26, 2024

Canadian officials also responded publicly.

“To compare us to Mexico is the most insulting thing I’ve ever heard from our friends and closest allies, the United States of America,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said. “I found his comments unfair. I found them insulting. It’s like a family member stabbing you right in the heart.”

Ford said Canada will have no choice but to retaliate.

Bettors Aren't Buying It....Yet

For its part, the betting market isn't buying the so-called "Trump tariffs".

Immediately following Trump's Monday statement, 45% of the betting market believed it would happen.  By Wednesday morning, just 25% backed that possibility.

Nearly $100,000 had been bet with none of that money coming from the U.S. as Polymarket restricts those in the States from placing wagers.

How This Market Will Be Settled

On November 25, Donald Trump announced that he would "sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States". (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215051155542).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action enacting a general 25% or greater tariff on imports into the United States from Mexico or Canada by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 25% or greater tariff on imports into the United States from Mexico or Canada is enacted. If a tariff is instituted on Mexico but not Canada, or on Canada but not Mexico, it will still qualify.

Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.