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Following the chaos overnight in South Korea, two of the largest predictions markets - Polymarket and Manifold - began offering a betting market on that nation's president being impeached.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said on Wednesday he would lift a surprise martial law declaration he had imposed just hours before, backing down in a standoff with parliament which roundly rejected his attempt to ban political activity and censor the media.
In South Korea's biggest political crisis in decades, Yoon shocked the nation and declared martial law on Tuesday night to thwart "anti-state forces" among his domestic political opponents. But outraged lawmakers unanimously rejected the decree. Yonhap news agency said the cabinet had agreed early on Wednesday to scrap the martial law.
Manifold’s markets now believe President Yoon has a 76% chance of being impeached in the next month.
From David Chee of Manifold:
"Yoon is only halfway through his 5-year term in office and South Korea’s next general elections are due to take place in 2027. However, the market thinks there is a very good chance he won’t even make it to the end of next year.
"Unfortunately, this market was created in response to the news so we don’t have a good indication of what the odds would have been prior to the news. But if we assume the baseline odds of impeachment were relatively low, we can infer that his actions over the past 24 hours have led to at least a 65-75% higher chance of his presidency terminating next year (take this with a grain of salt as there are a lot of variables to consider and I haven’t spent enough time researching to know what the actual baseline odds were).
"While we don’t have markets we can refer to track changes in presidency odds, we can track how these events have impacted the market odds on a direct clash. The news caused the odds to double from 8% to 16% (ignoring the spike from one overzealous trader).
"These odds will continue to be higher than the year’s baseline in anticipation of further news. If nothing happens over the next few days you can expect them to return to about 8%, especially as the closing time draws near."
This crisis is unfolding.....Continued coverage at Gambling911.com.
More Betting Markets
- South Korean People’s Power leader arrested by Friday? (low probability) - Available at Polymarket
- South Korean President impeached in 2024? (high probability) - Available at Polymarket, Manifold
- Will Yoon Suk Yeol Be President on X Date? (odds developing)
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