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No. 1 ranked Oregon will host No. 3 Penn State Saturday. The Ducks come into this game as a -3.5 favorite. This game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
What’s at stake?
Both teams look like locks for the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff field, so this game will be all about two things: Capturing a league title and postseason seeding. The winner probably gets a first-round bye and possibly the No. 1 overall seed while the loser probably settles for hosting a first-round game. Big Ten newcomer Oregon is chasing its first conference crown since winning Pac-12 titles in 2019 and 2020 and has the nation's longest winning streak (13). Penn State's last league title came in 2016.
Line Analysis
Sagarin gives us a number of 1.95, indicating an overlay. 75% of the action was on the Ducks.
Comparables
- Baylor +3.5 Oklahoma (road dog Baylor covers and wins) Oklahoma 1.48 Overlay of 2 - Road dog covers.
- Texas Tech +3.5 Iowa State (road dog Texas Tech covers and wins) Iowa State 1.89 Overlay 1.5 points - Road dog covers.
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Indianapolis +3.5 Denver (road dog Indianapolis covers and wins) Denver 2.09 - Overlay 1.5 - Road dog covers.
- Kansas +3.5 Texas Tech (home favorite Texas Tech covers and wins by a lot) Texas Tech 0.95 Overlay of 2.5 - Home favorite covers.
- Dallas +3.5 San Francisco (SF 2.61 - Overlay of 1) - Home favorite covers.
Winners and Whiners Prediction
"This game is for a bye in the College Football Playoff, and Oregon will continue its dominance with a win and a cover. Oregon has an elite offensive attack, they are 13th in the nation in passing yards per game with 277.6, and they have an 1,100-yard rusher. The Penn State defense has been strong, but not consistent all season. The Nittany Lions gave up 25 to Minnesota and 27 to Bowling Green, and Oregon has a much more powerful offense than those two teams. Oregon has scored 35 or more in five of their last six games, they will not be slowed down, especially considering the field they are playing on. Classic Big Ten teams are used to playing in the snow and in the cold, none of that will matter here as they are playing inside on turf, and Oregon will look like track stars on the perimeter. Penn State and Coach Franklin have a reputation of getting close, but falling late in the season, I will follow that trend as Oregon takes the crown in their first year in the Big Ten."
They say take Oregon to win and cover.
We, on the other hand, believe Penn State pulls through as overlays with the number in the range of 3/3.5 have performed especially well for the underdog in college football.
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