Dolphins vs. Texans Betting Prediction December 15

The Dolphins-Texans game this week does have important playoff ramifications as both teams still have hopes of making the post season. Granted, Miami's chances are a little slimmer.

Line Analysis

The line is moving between the -2.5 and -3 favoring Houston and Sagarin gives us a number of 3.02.  Accurate lines in this range of 2.5/3 tend to perform quite well for the favorite, but don't be surprised if this one pushes with a 3-point win by Houston.

Comparables

• Seahawks +3/+2.5 Falcons (Falcons 2.13 On The Money) - Road dog covers.
• Las Vegas +2.5 / +3 Denver (road dog Las Vegas covers and wins) Denver 2.97 On the Money - Road dog covers.
• South Carolina +2.5/+3 Clemson (Clemson 1.77 On The Money to an Overlay) - Road dog covers.
• Cleveland +2.5 /+3 Pittsburgh (home favorite Pitt covers and wins) Pitt 3.19 On the Money - Home favorite covers.

With the more specific line shift between 2.5 and 3, the dog is suddenly more enticing with an accurate line.

Prediction

From Winners and Whiners:

"The Texans come into this game rested and ready to go against the Dolphins. The Texan's key to victory in this game will be their ability to disrupt the fast-paced Dolphins' passing attack. Houston is second in the NFL in sacks per game and will disrupt Tua's quick-release style of offense. Additionally, the Texans are 7th in the NFL against the pass and can press the Dolphins receivers. The Texans' weakness defensively is against the run, but the Dolphins have been abysmal this season rushing the football. They are ranked 30th in the NFL in rushing and have tried to offset that by utilizing a screen game with Devon Achane. On the other side of the ball, the Texans can attack the Dolphin's defense with Mixon to set up their passing game. The return of Nico Collins has made a big difference in the Texans' passing attack in recent weeks. Collins had eight catches for 119 yards against the Jaguars two weeks ago and opened up the field for both tight end Schultz and Tank Dell. The Dolphins' inability to get to the quarterback, ranked 30th in sacks per game, will allow Stroud to get comfortable in the pocket and make plays down the field. Houston rolls and puts a dent in the Dolphins' playoff hopes.

Take Houston -3."

Playoff Chances

The Miami Dolphins:

"As of now, all three wild-card teams have eight wins. If Miami can catch fire over the final month of the season, overtaking one of these teams is certainly possible. Three or four wins to close out the year will certainly help the Dolphins, but they'll likely need a team or two that's currently ahead of them to go on a slide." - Source: SportingNews

The Houston Texans are widely expected to win the AFC South, which assures a post season.  Technically, the Colts can still win the division but Houston would have to implode and the Colts would need win each game moving forward as they are currently two games behind.

To make things really easy, Houston can clinch the AFC South title for the second straight year with a win and a loss by Indianapolis Sunday.