Chiefs vs. Steelers Christmas Day Game Betting Preview

The Chiefs take on the Steelers in Pittsburgh in what promises to be a very good Christmas Day NFL game with both teams heading to the playoffs.

Line Analysis and Betting Action

The Chiefs vs. Steelers game mostly trended from Kansas City -3 to -2.5.  Sagarin gives us a number of -1.75, suggesting a mostly accurate number.

Action is balanced for this game.

Comparables

• Packers -3/-2.5 Seahawks On The Money - Favorite covers
• Rams -2.5/-3 49ers On The Money - Favorite covers
• Rams -2.5/Saints On The Money - Favorite covers
• Bills -2.5 Jets (Bills 2.47 On The Money) - Favorite covers

Game Notes and Trends

• The Steelers have dominated the series, leading 23-14, but the Chiefs have won the past three games.
• Kansas City can clinch the No. 1 seed and first-round playoff bye with a win over the Steelers, or if the Bills lose or tie when they play the Jets on Sunday.
• Pittsburgh has dropped two straight, but can still earn its first AFC North title since 2020 by winning its last two games.
• The Chiefs can set a franchise record for regular-season wins with their 15th by beating Pittsburgh or Denver in their regular-season finale, breaking a tie with the 2020 and ‘22 teams.
• The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes needs three TD passes to break Peyton Manning’s record of 244 for a QB’s first eight seasons.

Chiefs Player to Watch

WR Marquise Brown, who hurt his shoulder on the first play of the preseason and landed on injured reserve, made an impressive regular-season debut against Houston last week. “Hollywood” caught five passes for 45 yards, including an early 13-yarder that converted a fourth down and led to an eventual touchdown. But perhaps most importantly, Brown’s mere presence kept Houston from double-teaming Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins and Travis Kelce all afternoon.

Steelers Player to Watch

LB T.J. Watt. The perennial All-Pro is dealing with an ankle injury and had a quiet game in the loss to Baltimore, finishing with just four tackles and didn’t have a single hit against Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. Pittsburgh's best chance at pulling the upset relies heavily on disrupting Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes at every turn. To do it, Watt will need to do some Watt-like things. The 30-year-old leads the NFL in forced fumbles for a defense that thrives on takeaways.

Key Matchup

Steelers RBs Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris against the Chiefs rush defense, which is ranked third in the NFL and allowing just 91.4 yards per game. The Chiefs held the Texans' Joe Mixon to just 57 yards rushing last week, the latest in a season-long trend of shutting down top running backs. The Browns' Nick Chubb had 41 yards the previous week, and the Ravens' Derrick Henry, the Falcons' Bijan Robinson and the Saints' Alvin Kamara are among those who have similarly struggled against Kansas City.

Our Pick

We are on the Kansas City Chiefs to cover the -2.5 spread here.