Written by :
Published on :
The Bengals take on the Broncos Saturday afternoon with both teams still technically in the playoff hunt.
Bengals Playoff Chances
The Bengals are currently on a three-game win streak. But with their 7-8 record and playing in one of the toughest divisions (Ravens and Steelers), there is zero room for error.
Their chances are at 5%.
Here is what needs to happen:
- The Bengals must win their final two games;
- The Denver Broncos must lose their final two games;
- The Indianapolis Colts must lose or tie one of their final two games;
- The Miami Dolphins must lose or tie one of their final two games.
Not impossible, but not probable either.
Broncos Playoff Chances
Like the Bengals, Denver plays in one of the tougher divisions that includes the Super Bowl champion and one-loss Kansas City Chiefs along with a fiesty LA Chargers team.
The Broncos can taste their first post season since 2015. Indeed, they control their own destiny with a greater than 75 percent chance of making it.
The Broncos can clinch a playoff berth with a Week 17 win, or tie, over the Bengals. If Denver loses this week, its playoff fate will be decided in Week 18 against a Chiefs team that will have little to play for and who knows if Patrick Mahomes will even take to the field.
Line Analysis and Action
70% of the spread action is surprisingly on the Bengals with the line moving between -3 and -3.5. Circa sitting on the -3 speaks volumes.
But Sagarin suggests there is a decent enough underlay with their number coming in at 5.77.
In general, when it comes to NFL games, our model does not give any edge with underlays in the 3/3.5 range.
Comparables
In addition to the 3/3.5 line move we can also look at solid 3's provided there is an underlay with the home team favored.
- Raiders +3 Chargers (Chargers 5.01 Underlay) - Home favorite covers.
- Seattle +3 Cincinnati (Cin 5.68 - Underlay of 3) - Home favorite covers.
- Detroit +3 Baltimore (Bal 4.29 - Underlay of 1) - Home favorite covers.
- Miami +3 Philadelphia (Phil 4.64 - Underlay of 1.5) - Home favorite covers.
Our Pick
Bengals -3
|
|
