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With nearly $160,000 wagered over the last 7 days, a quarter of those betting the number of executive orders incoming president Donald Trump will sign is going to be 40+.
That market is currently available at Polymarket. $58,000 and some change has thus far been bet on the 40+.
The next most wagered on option is the other extreme: Under 10, with $37,000 bet (19%).
This market will resolve to “Yes” Donald Trump as US President issues and signs less than 10 executive orders on January 20, 2025.
Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is the the Office of the Federal Register (https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) however official information from the White House (https://www.whitehouse.gov/) may also be used. Only executive orders with issuance dates of January 20, 2025 will count for this market.
Gambling sites like Polymarket and BetOnline, the latter of which accepts US-based customers and is endorsed by Gambling911.com, have released dozens of prop bets pertaining to the Trump inauguration.
Trump's quest to impose broad-based tariffs and carry out mass deportations has spooked the market somewhat leading up to his inauguration.
In late November 2024, Trump vowed to impose a 10% additional tariff on China, 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, all on his first day back in office, citing fentanyl shipments and illegal migration.
Trump advisers have indicated that Trump will sign an array of border-related executive orders on day one to "seal the border shut and begin the largest deportation operation in American history."
Companies fear work shortages resulting from said deportations.
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