Commanders vs. Lions Betting Prevew - NFC Divisional Playoffs January 18
Both of Saturday's games, including the earlier Texans vs. Chiefs game, feature spreads between the 9 and 10.
The Commanders-Lions game has a line of Detroit -9.5.
Jared Goff Total Passing Yards Prop Bet
The Detroit Lions starting quarterback Jared Goff was listed with an Over/Under total passing yards of 274.5 for this game. That's well over the 239.5 passing yards total listed for the Commanders Jayden Daniels.
Goff completed 27-of-33 passes for 231 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in the Lions’ 31-9, Week 18 win over the Vikings.
From NBC Edge:
"The Lions struggled to move the football with any consistency in the first half but still took a 10-6 lead into the break. The flood gates would open after returning to the field, with three second half touchdowns from running back Jahmyr Gibbs sealing the NFC’s top seed and locking up both the lone playoff bye and home field advantage up to the Super Bowl for the Lions. Goff’s first interception resulted from a heads up play from Ivan Pace in the flat, who undercut a route by Craig Reynolds in the second quarter, while his second pick came on a deep shot to Jameson Williams on an overthrown ball down the middle of the field. Even so, Detroit’s defense was a big part of this win, holding a dangerous Vikings offense to just 262 total yards on the evening. Goff and the Lions await the coming weekend’s results before they find out their opponent in the Divisional Round."
This season he has: the sixth-best QBR in the league (68.5); six games with an 80% completion rate, the most in NFL history; an NFL-best 18 touchdown passes on third and fourth downs, with no interceptions on such downs.
Jayden Daniels Passing Yards Prop Bets
As noted above, Jayden Daniels passing yard total comes in at 239.5.
Daniels became the first rookie in NFL history to lead his team in yards rushing and passing in a playoff win and the first rookie quarterback to throw at least two touchdown passes in a road playoff victory since Washington’s Sammy Baugh threw for three TDs against Chicago in the 1937 NFL title game.
Daniels completed 24-of-35 passes for 268 yards and two touchdowns in the Commanders’ 23-20, Wild Card win over the Bucs, adding 36 carries on 13 rushes.
Lions safety Brian Branch appeared on the NFL Network's *The Insiders* on Thursday to discuss how to slow down Daniels by condensing the pocket.
"You got to shrink the pocket," Branch said. "Jayden Daniels, I played him in college. He's an exceptional quarterback. He kind of reminds me of Lamar (Jackson). Just how he moves and stuff, but to me that's really the game plan. Just, you know, shrinking the pocket on him and make him make those throws."
Line Analysis, Comparables, Betting Action and Top Handicapping Predictions
Action was about 60% on the spread backing the Detroit Lions.
Sagarin gives us a number of 9.81, which is right on the money.
We have one comparable:
Baylor +8 to +10 Texas with this one on the money and the home favorite covering the spread.
Before You Bet
- Of Washington's last 11 games, 10 were settled by a single possession.
- The Commanders are now looking to reach the NFC Championship game for the first time since 1991.
- The Commanders defense has struggled to defend the run and will have a tough task against the Lions.
- Detroit is tops when it comes to stopping the run.
From Clutch Points:
"The Lions' secondary allowed the third most passing yards per game during the regular season. That metric ranks behind the Buccaneers, who struggled to contain Terry McLaurin and the Washington wideout core all day. While Detroit has two of the best safeties in the league, Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch, this team's cornerbacks have struggled throughout the year in single coverage."
Head to Head Player Prop Bets
Most Receiving Yards: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) vs Dyami Brown (WAS)
-556
+290
Most Receiving Yards: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) vs Olamide Zaccheaus (WAS)
-556
+300
Most Receiving Yards: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) vs Zach Ertz (WAS)
-834
+375
Most Receiving Yards: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) vs Terry McLaurin (WAS)
-150
-102
Most Receptions: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) vs Zach Ertz (WAS)
-770
+390
Most Receptions: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) vs Terry McLaurin (WAS)
-197
+135
Most Receptions: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) vs Dyami Brown (WAS)
-1000
+455
Most Receptions: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) vs Olamide Zaccheaus (WAS)
-910
+425
Most Rushing Yards: Austin Ekeler (WAS) vs David Montgomery (DET)
+209
-345
Most Rushing Yards: Austin Ekeler (WAS) vs Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)
+844
-10000
Most Rushing Yards: Brian Robinson (WAS) vs Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)
+405
-910
Most Rushing Yards: Brian Robinson (WAS) vs David Montgomery (DET)
+120
-182
Most Receiving Yards: Dyami Brown (WAS) vs Kalif Raymond (DET)
-626
+315
Most Receiving Yards: Dyami Brown (WAS) vs Jameson Williams (DET)
+156
-244
Most Receiving Yards: Dyami Brown (WAS) vs Sam LaPorta (DET)
+140
-218
Most Receptions: Dyami Brown (WAS) vs Sam LaPorta (DET)
+195
-304
Most Receptions: Dyami Brown (WAS) vs Jameson Williams (DET)
+139
-205
Most Receiving Yards: Jameson Williams (DET) vs John Bates (WAS)
-2000
+590
Most Receiving Yards: Jameson Williams (DET) vs Olamide Zaccheaus (WAS)
-264
+165
Most Receiving Yards: Jameson Williams (DET) vs Zach Ertz (WAS)
-334
+200
Most Receiving Yards: Jameson Williams (DET) vs Terry McLaurin (WAS)
+117
-179
Most Receptions: Jameson Williams (DET) vs Zach Ertz (WAS)
-167
+116
Most Receptions: Jameson Williams (DET) vs Olamide Zaccheaus (WAS)
-193
+131
Most Receptions: Jameson Williams (DET) vs Terry McLaurin (WAS)
+216
-345
Most Pass Completions: Jared Goff (DET) vs Jayden Daniels (WAS)
-162
+112
Most Passing TDs: Jared Goff (DET) vs Jayden Daniels (WAS)
-264
+175
Most Passing Yards: Jared Goff (DET) vs Jayden Daniels (WAS)
-233
+150
Most Receiving Yards: John Bates (WAS) vs Kalif Raymond (DET)
+116
-176
Most Receiving Yards: John Bates (WAS) vs Sam LaPorta (DET)
+685
-3334
Most Receiving Yards: Kalif Raymond (DET) vs Terry McLaurin (WAS)
+735
-5000
Most Receiving Yards: Kalif Raymond (DET) vs Olamide Zaccheaus (WAS)
+248
-435
Most Receiving Yards: Kalif Raymond (DET) vs Zach Ertz (WAS)
+222
-371
Most Receiving Yards: Olamide Zaccheaus (WAS) vs Sam LaPorta (DET)
+149
-233
Most Receptions: Olamide Zaccheaus (WAS) vs Sam LaPorta (DET)
+184
-286
Most Receiving Yards: Sam LaPorta (DET) vs Zach Ertz (WAS)
-304
+187
Most Receiving Yards: Sam LaPorta (DET) vs Terry McLaurin (WAS)
+146
-228
Most Receptions: Sam LaPorta (DET) vs Terry McLaurin (WAS)
+145
-213
Most Receptions: Sam LaPorta (DET) vs Zach Ertz (WAS)
-251
+164
Our Pick
NA
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