Ohio State vs. Notre Dame CFP Championship Game Betting Preview

The line on the Notre Dame vs. Ohio State game opened as high as Buckeyes -10.5 and has dropped to as low as -8, while moving back up a half point at some books Sunday night.

Sagarin gives us a number of just -2.5 Ohio State.  Some 65% to 70% of the spread action was on the Buckeyes as of Sunday evening.

Compable Game Line Movements

A few comparables we've analyzed appear below.

Memphis -10 to -9 Navy - The Sagarin number came in at Memphis -17, indicating a significant overlay similar to what we see here.  Navy went on to cover as the underdog.

Kansas State -10 to -8 Tulane - Kansas State should have been at -6.5, suggesting an overlay of 2 to 3 points.  Not as big but the underdog Tulane ultimately won.

What’s at Stake?

The winner claims the national championship in the first year of the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff and longest college football season ever. Ohio State is trying for its sixth title, and first since its 2014 team won the inaugural CFP. Notre Dame is going for its 12th title, and first since 1988.

Key Matchup

Ohio State quarterback Will Howard vs. Notre Dame defense. Howard has been in a groove in the playoff, and he has one of the best receiving tandems in the nation in Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka. Smith was all but shut down by Texas in the semifinal, and it’s a certainty Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden was taking notes. Golden runs an NFL-style defense with lots of moving parts, and he’s adept at making changes on the fly. The Fighting Irish are at their best when they’re in man coverage and bringing the blitz.

Top Players

Ohio State: Running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins will be going against a defense that has allowed just 3.4 yards per carry over three CFP games. The combination of Henderson’s speed and Judkins’ physicalness can cause problems, and both are more than capable as receivers.

Notre Dame: Riley Leonard is the type of quarterback that has bothered the Buckeyes. He’s a dual threat — probably a better runner than passer, especially on downfield throws. His toughness and competitiveness help him make winning plays more often than not.