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The second week of the Trump administration was about as busy as the first, with a flurry of new executive orders, memoranda, and market-shifting press conferences.
Last Tuesday, federal workers received an email offering them a buyout worth 7 months of salary (or rather, a deferred resignation at the end of the government fiscal year) if they agreed to resign by February 6th. News of this caused markets tracking federal layoffs to spike, expectations tempering slightly after reports that only about 1% of eligible federal workers had accepted the offer with two days left to decide.
Over the weekend, the Manifold prediction market reviewed reactions to said executive orders.
Buyouts Prediction Market
The betting markets give a 44% chance of federal employees receiving the full, promised compensation.
From Manifold:
"Commenters noted that the move to offer buyouts mirrored a similar action taken by Musk after his purchase of Twitter, down to the subject line of the email. Musk previously won a lawsuit against the employees who felt that they did not receive the promised severance package.
"After the rapid dismantling of USAID and news of a potential executive order to eliminate or merge the Department of Education into another department, traders adjusted quickly upwards to above 60% for the likelihood of the DoEd facing a similar fate as USAID. Traders don’t seem to be fazed by news reports downplaying the possibility of such an action occurring without filibuster-proof legislation clearing the Senate, which might seem a remote possibility."
As for the Department of Education, 62% of the betting market currently believe it will be dismantled by the Trump administration.
Department of Government Efficient Market Hypotheses
Quite surprisingly perhaps, the betting markets were nearly in complete unison at 89% that at least one federal court will find the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has broken the law. 50 percent of gamblers believe there will be a breach revealed in 2025.
Their access to treasury systems has already been halted by a federal judge, though Manifold thinks it likely that their access will resume within the next month.
Despite no clear signs of a thawing in the relationship between America’s wealthiest man and president, markets are speculating on the direction it may take over 2025, with markets showing little activity in their forecasts on a Trump-Musk split.
44 percent believe Trump will make disparaging remarks towards Musk this year.
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