Odds on Will Mike Waltz Resign Before May (Kalshi)

The fallout continued into late Wednesday from revelations that top national security officials discussed sensitive attack plans over the Signal messaging app.

Dozens of Political Props Offered

National Security Advisor Mike Waltz appeared to be most under scrutiny having admitted to building the Signal contact chain that resulted in a journalist being added to the chain.

The White House said the information shared through the publicly available Signal app with Jeffrey Goldberg, editor-in-chief of The Atlantic magazine, was not classified.  The full text chain without redactions was released Wednesday morning.

Devlin Barrett of the New York Times observed the following:

"The administration’s defense has rested on whether the details of the messages count as classified information. Administration officials have noted that it is up to the Defense Department to decide which details of its own work are classified. And since the head of that department, Mr. Hegseth, has declared the information not classified, it therefore is not, they have contended.

"Going back to at least the Reagan administration, however, the government has considered information about “military plans, weapons or operations” to be classified."

Mick Mulroy, a former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration, agrees.

“It is highly classified and protected,” Mulroy said. “Disclosure would compromise the operation and put lives at risk. Next to nuclear and covert operations, this information is the most protected.”

Prediction market Kelshi released odds on whether Waltz will still be around come June 1.

His chances ranged from 18 percent to 23 percent throughout the day on Wednesday after the betting market was released earlier in the morning.  Nearly $100,000 had been bet by 10 pm ET.

Rules:

• Scope: These rules shall apply to this contract.
• Underlying: The Underlying for this Contract is actions and public statements of <official>.Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.
• Source Agency: The Source Agency is <official> and The New York Times.
• Type: The type of Contract is an Event Contract.
• Issuance: After the initial Contract, Contract iterations will be listed on an as-needed basis at the discretion of the Exchange and corresponding to the risk management needs of Members. <official>: <official> refers to a given government employee or officeholder specified by the Exchange. <official> may also take the form of more than one employee, e.g., “Any Governor of aU.S. state”.