What happened?  Earlier in the week weather forecasts called for sunny skies and dry conditions Saturday.  That all changed as we approached Kentucky Derby Day with rain in the forecast for Louisville Saturday. You will definitely want to bet on those mudders, and there are a few.  Rain was forecast for much of the day. Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms were in the forecast Friday to assure of a wet track come Saturday evening.

Who Are the Mudders in the 2025 Kentucky Derby?

• Sandman - In the 2025 Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park, he finished second over a sealed, wet-fast surface. In the 2025 Rebel Stakes (G2), also at Oaklawn Park, Sandman secured third place on a similarly wet track
• American Promise - On December 29, 2024, he won a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight race at Oaklawn Park, which was run on a muddy sealed track. He led throughout and secured victory by 1½ lengths, defeating Publisher and Knicks Glory.  A previous race on a muddy track did not produce as good results. 
• Coal Battle - He won his debut race on a sloppy track at Evangeline Downs on July 25, 2024, and later secured victory in the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs on a muddy track on November 8, 2024.
• Luxor Cafe - on August 31, 2024, he finished second in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Sapporo, Japan, on a muddy dirt track, completing the race in 1:45.85.  He's had success running on tracks classified as "good" or "muddy".  His sire, American Pharoah, has a 17% win rate on muddy tracks.
• Publisher has experience racing on wet and muddy tracks. He finished second in a maiden race on a muddy track at Oaklawn Park and third on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs, also in a maiden race .​
• Burnham Square's pedigree suggests he may handle off-track conditions well. His sire, Liam's Map, has a 20% mud-winning rate, and his dam's sire, Scat Daddy, has a 15% mud-winning rate.

For sure consider betting one of the above horses as this forecast changes everything.

Who We Would Avoid

• Final Gambit - He has yet to run on dirt, let alone a muddy track.

Updated Kentucky Derby Odds 2025

•     Gate 1: Citizen Bull (17-1)
•     Gate 2: Neoequos (57-1)
•     Gate 3: Final Gambit (17-1)
•     Gate 4: American Promise (13-1)
•     Gate 5: Admire Daytona (39-1)
•     Gate 6: Luxor Cafe (15-1)
•     Gate 7: Journalism (7-2)
•     Gate 8: Burnham Square (19-1)
•     Gate 9: Grande (19-1)
•     Gate 10: Flying Mohawk (36-1)
•     Gate 11: East Avenue (33-1)
•     Gate 12: Publisher (30-1)
•     Gate 13: Tiztastic (20-1)
•     Gate 14: Render Judgment (13-1)
•     Gate 15: Coal Battle (30-1)
•     Gate 16: Sandman (5-1)
•     Gate 17: Sovereignty (11-1)
•     Gate 18: Chunk of Gold (33-1)
•     Gate 19: Owen Almighty (44-1)
•     Gate 20: Baeza (50-1)