Odds for Elon Musk's America Party

Elon Musk said he is going to form his own political party, and President Donald Trump responded by calling his former confidant a train wreck. 

Something tells us the Musk-Trump feud is far from over. 

Most people expect Musk to go through with his party plans, including the oddsmakers, but the chances of the America Party disrupting next year's election cycle are not good. 

BetOnline.ag posted some intriguing political markets surrounding the weekend's drama. Our favorite asks which politician will be the first to join Elon.

America Party odds can be viewed in real time here. 

Will Elon Musk formally register the America Party in 2025?

Yes       1/3

No        2/1

(Yes odds equate to a 75% probability)

 

Will any GOP House or Senate member join the America Party in 2025?

Yes       6/1

No        1/15

(Yes odds equate to a 14.3% probability)

 

Who will be the first to join the America Party?

Thomas Massie             1/1       

Rand Paul                     3/1       

Lisa Murkowski             5/1       

Dean Phillips                 6/1       

Brian Fitzpatrick            16/1     

Cornel West                  16/1     

Marjorie Taylor Greene 25/1     

Susan Collins                 25/1     

 

Will the America Party field 25 or more House candidates during 2026 elections?

Yes       5/1

No        1/9

(Yes odds equate to a 16.7% probability)

 

Will the America Party nominee win the 2028 Presidential Election?

Yes       100/1

(Yes odds equate to a 0.1% probability)