Betting Markets: Government Shutdown Odds Now at 87 Percent

Written by :

C Costigan

Published on :

30 September, 2025

A US government shutdown is almost certain, with 87% of the gambling public betting on it to happen at Kalshi.

Just over $2.5 million had been wagered on this event by Tuesday afternoon with just hours until the government could shutter.

A partisan standoff over health care and spending is threatening to trigger the first U.S. government shutdown in almost seven years, with Democrats and Republicans in Congress unable to find agreement even as thousands of federal workers stand to be furloughed or laid off.

The government will shut down at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday if the Senate does not pass a House measure that would extend federal funding for seven weeks while lawmakers finish their work on annual spending bills. Senate Democrats say they won’t vote for it unless Republicans include an extension of expiring health care benefits, among other demands. President Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans say they won’t negotiate, arguing that it’s a stripped-down, “clean” bill that should be noncontroversial.

A look at the top queries coming into Gambling911.com on Tuesday reveal that four of the top 25 were releated to the potential for a shutdown.