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US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Friday he ordered another strike on a small boat he accused of carrying drugs in the waters off Venezuela, expanding what the Trump administration has declared is an “armed conflict” with cartels. It is the fourth deadly strike in the Caribbean and latest since revelations that US President Donald Trump told lawmakers he was treating drug traffickers as unlawful combatants.
Trump said in a social media post that the boat was “loaded with enough drugs to kill 25 TO 50 THOUSAND PEOPLE” and implied it was “entering American Territory” while off the coast of Venezuela.
In his post, Hegseth said that “our intelligence, without a doubt, confirmed that this vessel was trafficking narcotics, the people onboard were narco-terrorists, and they were operating on a known narco-trafficking transit route.”
He noted that four individuals had been killed in the strike. No further details were offered.
To date, the betting markets have mostly stayed clear of offering odds on a potential US-Venezuela conflict.
Manifold Markets, which is a social prediction market, had the chances of a conflict between the two nations set at 46 percent.
Their restrictions for this market require a US Navy action against a narco-boat causing 10+ fatalities counts only if it occurs in Venezuelan waters with an ambiguous location not counting.
Polymarket, which does not accept bets from those in the US, has thus far recorded over $2 million in volume for its USA-Venezuela conflict betting market.
44 percent of those placing real money trades believe there will be a conflict between the two nations before year's end.
The resolution at Polymarket will be as follows:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela between August 21, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage.
Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- TC Jackson, Gambling911.com
