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US President Donald Trump is set to deliver a live prime-time address from the White House on Wednesday night.
The popular prediction market Kalshi opened a betting market on what Trump will say during the national address.
The White House offered few details about what the Republican president intends to emphasize in the 9 p.m. speech. Public polling shows most U.S. adults are frustrated with his handling of the economy as inflation picked up after his tariffs raised prices and hiring slowed.
Trump has said that he thinks more Americans would back him if they simply heard him describe his track record, which administration officials say will reverse the recent decline in manufacturing jobs and dramatically increase tax refunds next year.
The president announced the forthcoming address in a Truth Social post on Tuesday afternoon.
"My Fellow Americans: I will be giving an ADDRESS TO THE NATION tomorrow night, LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE, at 9 P.M. EST," he said in the post. "I look forward to 'seeing' you then. It has been a great year for our Country, and THE BEST IS YET TO COME!"
With just shy of $100,000 traded as of Wednesday morning, Kalshi customers have made "tariff" and "Christmas" the co-favorites at 94 percent each and "drug/cartel" at 92%. "Biden" came in at 91 percent.
Remarks such as "crypto" and "Epstein" require a much smaller stake to pay higher odds (15 percent and 12 percent chance, respectively).
The Rules Summary
If Donald Trump says Gulf of America as part of Address to the Nation on December 17th, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, and The White House.
Video of the Address to the Nation on December 17th will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the Address to the Nation on December 17th will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details. For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event. Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream will not count. Previous recordings aired during this event will not count.
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
