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Here is our regular look at what is heating up in the world of prediction markets across various websites. For the Friday December 26, 2025 edition, we look at former US Vice President Al Gore's name suddenly being tossed around with the infamous Jeffrey Epstein files as well as the potential release of Grok 4.20 by next week.
Will Al Gore Be Named in the Newly Released Epstein Files?
22 percent of traders at Polymarket believe the Gore will be named. That's a relatively low number but he's only second to former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair at 30 percent. It wasn't immediately clear what prompted traders interest in Gore's name being part of the files.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration (including any federal court) publicly releases previously unreleased files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein which contain any mention of the listed individual between November 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only previously unreleased files which contain novel material not previously available to the public will qualify. Documents that are merely re-released, have had redactions removed, repackaged, or newly publicized versions of already available information do not qualify.
Any mention of the listed individual in connection with Jeffrey Epstein will qualify, regardless of if connected to nefarious or illegal activities.
Previously unreleased files is inclusive of any written, audio, photo or video documentation (e.g., qualifying photos which depict the listed individual will count).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Will Grok 4.25 Be Released By End of This Year?
24 percent of traders at Polymarket see Grok 4.25 being released by December 31, 2025. That's up from 18 percent but most believe January 15, 2026 or beyond, starting at 86 percent.
Grok 4.20 is the newest update in the Grok “4.x” generation of AI models from xAI (Elon Musk’s AI company). It’s basically an evolution of Grok 4.
Grok leans heavily on integrating recent web/X (formerly Twitter) data, so it can be sharper on very recent trends or social data.
What Price Will Gold Close at in 2025? ($4000-5000)?
Much of the prediction market traders (41 percent) have gold closing between $4500 and $4600 by year's end.
This market will resolve based on the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) as of the final market close price in 2025.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).
Israeli Parliament Dissolved by...?
What do traders think?
37 percent are backing the Israeli parliament being dissolved by March 31, 2026.
In the past week, as of December 26, 2025, significant political developments in Israel have emerged that could impact the likelihood of the Knesset being dissolved by the specified dates in your queried markets. Notably, posts found on X indicate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has instructed close associates to prepare for the possibility of dissolving the Knesset and calling early elections, with the unresolved "Conscription Law" cited as a major concern. This internal pressure, alongside ongoing coalition tensions and contentious legislation, suggests an increased probability of dissolution within the timelines of October 31, December 31, or March 31. However, no official confirmation has been reported, so the situation remains fluid.
Who Will Visit Mar-a-Lago Before 2026?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says he plans to meet with Donald Trump in the near future, potentially as soon as this weekend in Florida, as Kyiv looks to push peace talks with Russia forward before year's end, The Hill reports. Zelensky says his newly unveiled 20-point peace plan is nearly complete, though Moscow, led by Vladimir Putin, continues to reject concessions and place blame on Ukraine if negotiations collapse.
It should not surprise anyone that his chances at Kalshi are 93 percent.
- Chris Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher
