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Hard Rock Bet, mostly through its near monopoly in the Florida market, has significantly cut into the market share of the US regulated leaders in the sports betting space, DraftKings and FanDuel.
Hard Rock Bet's Success Cannot Be Underestimated
James McLoughlin, the self-described "App Marketing Assassin", released the latest top 13 most downloaded sports betting apps in the US.
In the whole scheme of things, Hard Rock Bet has held its own against some of the most powerful players emerging in recent years from both the Daily Fantasy Sports (contest) space, the likes Underdog and Prizepicks, and more recently, the predictioon market sector, Kashi in particular.
This is especially impressive considering Hard Rock Bet is still restricted in most US states. They operate in a state-regulated frame work with a presence in only eight other states outside of Florida: Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia.
Prediction market companies like Kalshi claim they can operate in all 50 states based on a federal framework. They are licensed and regulated at the federal level as a financial exchange by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Daily Fantasy Sports sites like Underdog are subject to some state restrictions, though these companies are looking to get around this barrier to entry by joining forces with prediction market platforms.
Underdog, which currently lists close to a dozen state restrictions, announced in September of this past year a partnership with Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA) to integrate CFTC-regulated prediction markets directly into the Underdog mobile app. This arrangement enables users to trade sports event contracts (outcomes) instead of just traditional sports bets.
As of now, Hard Rock Bet has offered no indication they intend to enter the prediction market sector.
Don't Call It Gambling
Underdog and Kalshi reign supreme among the Top 13 sports gambling-related most downloaded apps. Sites like Kalshi insists they do not offer gambling per se but instead offer contracts that are legally derivatives/futures-style instruments rather than bets. Most legal experts - and state regulators - in the gambling space will say this is more about semantics than anything else.
In Massachusetts, the state’s top prosecutor directly framed prediction contracts as gambling:
“If Kalshi wants to be in the sports gaming business in Massachusetts, they must obtain a license," Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell stated.
“Sports wagering comes with significant risk of addiction and financial loss and must be strictly regulated to mitigate public health consequences.”
“In our markets, you’re trading in an open financial marketplace," Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour insists. "You’re trading against other people ... If you go to a traditional model, you’re betting against a sportsbook.”
He's not alone in this through process.
“Prediction markets aren’t gambling because they’re not structured to be," claims Aaron Brogan, an attorney in the cryptocurrency space. "They match counterparties and earn fees rather than take the other side of a wager like a traditional casino.”
Kalshi and Underdog continuing to push this narrative will likely ensure both companies continue their dominance as the most downloaded sports gambling apps regardless of how they choose to classify their products.
Polymarket Overtakes PrizePicks
"Underdog had an incredible & pace setting 2025. So for Kalshi to reset the benchmark by such a margin is unfathomable," remarks McLoughlin,
Enter Polymarket into the fray.
"I'm also shocked to see PrizePicks (2024/25 #1) get overtaken by Polymarket," McLoughlin stated.
"But it should be acknowledged that the big four (UD, DK, FD, PP) have dominated this chart for years, and acquisition isn't unlimited.
"A couple other things stand out," he observed.
"DraftKings Inc. have had a strong 30-days promoting their new prediction product, while also winning the FanDuel sportsbook-duel by a couple of lengths. They might be the permanent #1 sportsbook in 2026."
Getting back to Hard Rock Bet, McLoughlin offered the following:
"And I'm genuinely impressed by Hard Rock Digital growing 40.2%. They doubled the downloads of BetMGM, & were the clear #3 sportsbook in this period."
- Chris Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher
