Written by :
Published on :
Can the Carolina Panthers pull off another miracle at home?
In Week 14, the Panthers were 10-point home dogs against the Rams and they emerged with a 31-28 victory.
This weekend, Carolina finds itself as the biggest road underdog in NFL Playoffs history at +10.5, and they will not only try to cover the spread but also pull off another upset against L.A.
The three prior largest road favorites were the Bucs in 2020 (-10 and beat Washington 31-23), the Saints in 2010 (-9.5 and lost to Seattle 41-36) and the Steelers in 2011 (-7.5 and lost to Denver 29-23).
So, none of those big road favorites covered the spread, and the oddsmakers don't think the Rams will either...even though it’s a 50/50 proposition
For years, we’ve been sending very similar props for the playoffs. This year, we urged the oddsmakers to think outside the box and create odds that had a narrative attached to them.
And they hit a home run.
Here are the five props categories:
- Quarterbacks making their playoff debuts…Bryce Young, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.
- Quarterbacks that were drafted first overall…Bryce Young, Caleb Williams, Matthew Stafford and Trevor Lawrence.
- Weather related props. All six Wild Card Weekend games are outdoors for the first time since 2007 season (2008 playoffs). And back then, there were only four games, not the current six.
- Steelers playoff futility props. They Steelers have lost six straight playoff games and have been outscored a combined 73-0 in the six first quarters.
- The Panthers being the biggest home underdogs in playoff history.
Additionally, there is a prop for whether or not there will be a first time Super Bowl winner and if a No. 1 seed will win the Super Bowl.
Lastly, there are some stat-related props for a few teams.
NFL Wild Card round props are fluid and subject to change.
QB Playoff Debut Props
How many QBs making playoff debut will win? (Bryce Young, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye)
Over 1.5 +150 (3/2)
Under 1.5 -200 (1/2)
Will any QB making playoff debut reach Super Bowl? (Bryce Young, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye)
Yes +250 (5/2)
No -400 (1/4)
Note: These odds imply a 20% probability of either of these three quarterbacks reaching the Super Bowl.
Which QB making playoff debut will have most turnovers?
Bryce Young 6/5 (+120)
Caleb Williams 7/4 (+175)
Drake Maye 9/4 (+225)
Which QB making playoff debut will have most touchdowns?
Drake Maye 1/1 (+100)
Caleb Williams 3/2 (+150)
Bryce Young 3/1 (+300)
Which QB making playoff debut will have most rushing yards?
Drake Maye 3/2 (+150)
Caleb Williams 8/5 (+160)
Bryce Young 7/4 (+175)
1st Pick Overall QB Props
Which QB drafted No. 1 overall will have most turnovers?
Bryce Young 7/4 (+175)
Caleb Williams 11/5 (+220)
Matthew Stafford 11/4 (+275)
Trevor Lawrence 4/1 (+400)
Which QB drafted No. 1 overall will have most touchdowns?
Matthew Stafford 7/4 (+175)
Caleb Williams 5/2 (+250)
Trevor Lawrence 11/4 (+275)
Bryce Young 7/2 (+350)
Weather-related Props
How many Wild Card games will go under closing total?
Over/Under 3.5
Note: Since 2004, outdoor Wild Card games are 49-23 (68%) to the under.
Lowest Temperature at Kickoff for any Wild Card Game
Over/Under 32 degrees
Highest Wind Speed (MPH) for any Wild Card Game
Over/Under 35 MPH
Note: Highest recorded wind gust MPH according to weather.com.
Steelers Playoff Futility Props
Will Steelers get shut out in first quarter?
Yes +100
No -140
Note: The Steelers have been shut out in six straight playoff game first quarters under Mike Tomlin.
Note: These odds imply a 41.7% probability of the Steelers getting shut out in the first quarter.
Will the Steelers be down double digits in the first quarter?
Yes +800 (8/1)
No -2000 (1/20)
Note: The Steelers have been trailing by an average of 12.2 to zero after the last six playoff first quarters.
Note: These odds imply a 4.8% probability of the Steelers being down double digits in the first quarter on Monday.
Will Mike Tomlin be fired if Steelers lose this weekend.?
Yes +150 (3/2)
No -200 (1/2)
Note: Must be fired before February 1 for action.
Note: These odds imply a 33.3% probability of Mike Tomlin getting fired if the Steelers lose this weekend.
Biggest Playoff Home Underdog Props
Will Panthers lose by more than 10 points?
Yes +100 (1/1)
No -140 (5/7)
Note: This is just a "covering the spread" prop but as the +10.5 is the biggest road spread in NFL Playoffs history, the oddsmakers do think the trend continues for big home underdogs to cover.
Will the Panthers win the game outright?
Yes +450
No -610
Note: This is a moneyline number and odds imply a 14.1% probability of the Panthers winning the game.
Stat-Related Props
James Cook – Rushing Yards
Over/Under 79.5
Note: Jacksonville has not allowed a single player to rush for over 75 yards in a game this season.
Note: James Cook averaged 95.4 yards per game and he only had two carries for 15 yards in Week 17.
Will Brock Purdy throw an interception?
Yes -150 (2/3)
No +110 (11/10)
Note: Brock Purdy has not thrown an interception in six career playoff games.
Note: These odds imply a 60% probability of Purdy throwing his first career playoff interception.
Miscellaneous Props
Will there be a first-time Super Bowl champion? (Panthers, Bills, Jags, Texans or Chargers)
Yes +250 (5/2)
No -400 (1/4)
Note: These odds imply a 20% probability of there being a first-time Super Bowl champion.
Will at least one No. 1 seed reach Super Bowl?
Yes +100 (1/1)
No -140 (5/7)
Note: These odds imply a 58.3% probability of neither of the number one seeds advancing to the Super Bowl
Will a Wild Card team win the Super Bowl?
Yes +110 (11/10)
No -150 (2/3)
Note: These odds imply a 40% probability of a Wild Card team winning the Super Bowl
Note: These teams include Houston, Buffalo, LAC, LAR, SF and GB.
Will a Wild Card team make the Super Bowl
Yes -200 (1/2)
No +150 (3/2)
Note: These odds imply a 66.7% probability of one of the Wild Card teams making the Super Bowl.
Note: These teams include Houston, Buffalo, LAC, LAR, SF and GB.
Will any starting QB be benched during game? (Non-injury related)
Yes +550 (11/2)
No -1000 (1/10)
Note: These odds imply a 9.1% probability of a quarterback getting benched during Wild Card Weekend.
- BetOnline Press
