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The Miami Hurricanes can't get no respect.
Ok, the Hurricanes were favored Thursday night against Ole Miss, but just slightly, and they were underdogs in their first two CFP games, including a double-digit dog to Ohio State.
So, after three straight victories the No. 10 seed in the CFP tournament won't be much of an underdog to whichever team it plays in the championship on its home field, right?
Wrong.
Miami is listed as a 6.5-point underdog in a matchup against Indiana and a 3-point dog to Oregon. Here are the current lookahead lines, via BetOnline.ag:
Gambling911.com has already determined that both these numbers are inflated as we have a number of Miami +2.5 vs. Indiana and +1 versus Oregon. Our own model indicates that overlays in the 2.5/3 range are especially favorable to the dog (as could be the case against Oregon).
On the surface, at least, it appears that the oddsmakers have not factored in home field advantage for the Hurricanes, who will be playing at Hard Rock Stadium just outside of Miami.
While it's true that tickets are mostly split between both sides in championship games, home is home. And Hard Rock Stadium is home to the Canes. This is where they play when not on the road.
CFP National Championship
Miami vs. Indiana (-6.5, 45) - After dismantling Oregon, that number moved to -8
Again, the Hurricanes will be playing on their home turf at Hard Rock Stadium. Now, this isn't a typical "home game" with all the fanfare surrounding it and thousands of "bystander" tickets to be handed out, but let's just put the value of home-field advantage at 2 points for argument's sake (would normally be 3 points).
That means on a neutral field Indiana would be an 8.5-point favorite and for a game in Bloomington the Hoosiers would be around 11-point favorites!
It feels like the Canes deserve more respect from the oddsmakers than this, but the underdog role is perhaps exactly the spot they want to be in.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
