Melania Box Office Numbers Surprising as Gamblers Backing Over $5 Million Take Win

Submitted by Jordan Bach on

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Jordan Bach

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Melania documentary

While not a heavily traded betting market, those at Polymarket officially cashed in their winning "Melania" documentary trades Sunday with news that the documentary had grossed $7 million its opening weekend.  Polymarket listed the highest gross as >$5 million.  The film far exceeded those expectations. 

$292,750 in trading volume was observed at Polymarket with the vast majority of that ($129,659) on the film grossing under $3 million. 

$67,707 was traded on the winning over $5 million number. 

From Forbes.com: 

“Melania,” the Brett Ratner-directed documentary about the First Lady preparing for President Donald Trump’s second inauguration, blew past projections and grossed an estimated $7 million at domestic theaters over its opening weekend, according to early numbers reported by the Hollywood trade publications.

The $7 million gross makes it the best opening for a documentary in the last decade, beating the $5 million record set by Angel Studios’ “After Death” in 2023.  The film finished in third place at the box office this weekend. 

Amazon paid about $40 million to acquire and produce the film itself and reportedly spent around $35 million on marketing and promotion for its theatrical release.

The documentary was directed by Brett Ratner.  It is his first major directing project since 2014. 

  • Jordan Bach, Gambling911.com 

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