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The prediction market surge has lured in countless numbers of young people, and it's not just sports betting.
Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket allow for wagering on the outcomes of everything from political elections to where the stock market will close to who will be named in the Epstein Files.
“I wouldn’t describe it as gambling” but a “mix of betting and options trading,” 21-year-old Yadin Eldar, a Florida State University student who’s been betting on prediction markets since 2019, told The Guardian. “It’s not like when you go to the casino, and play against the house, and hope you get to win against the house,” he added. “That’s not what it is.”
From Futurism:
The nature of the wagers open up whole new avenues of insider trading and other dishonest practices. Take, for example, the Polymarket bet on the number of tweets Elon Musk will make between February 6 and February 13, which currently has nearly $15 million worth of bets placed. What’s stopping Musk from seeing this and telling a friend how much he’s going to tweet? The answer: practically nothing — hence the numerous scandals that have already emerged over this clear vulnerability.
Just as nefarious is that prediction markets have perfected a wildly addictive formula, especially among young, inexperienced bettors. Part of the appeal is that instead of betting against the house, these platforms claim, you’re betting against other players (though the fine print suggests otherwise). It’s also simpler: either the thing happens, or it doesn’t happen. Adding to that, the prediction markets project credibility through partnerships with news organizations like CNN, which now display their data during broadcasts.
NBA Commissioner No Issue With Giannis Kalshi Partnership
Speaking around All-Star Weekend, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver downplayed concerns surrounding Giannis Antetokounmpo’s investment in Kalshi, brushing off suggestions that it presented a league-level conflict.
“In the case of Giannis, from what I understand, it’s a minuscule investment. Much smaller than 1%, so that does not violate the rules that have been collectively bargained with the Players Association.”
His statement comes
The commissioner's remarks come as Major League Baseball says it is considering partnership arrangements with prediction markets.
Owners were briefed this week at their quarterly meetings about the possibility of partnering with a prediction market. Both companies are federally regulated. Some US states like Nevada and New Jersey are fighting to keep prediction market firms out of their market.
"We thought it was important for the owners to be updated on why prediction markets are different than sports betting -- why we might want to consider being in be business with prediction markets in an effort to protect our integrity, to get the kind of protections we need," Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred said. "The regulatory framework, very different. Obviously state by state on the sports betting side, federal on the other."
Silver, meanwhile, is exercising some degree of caution moving forward.
“We currently are looking at prediction markets essentially in the same way that we’re looking at sports betting markets or sports betting companies,” Silver said.
"It’s rapidly evolving. Prediction markets have now come on the scene fairly recently as, I don’t know how else to say it, major sports betting marketplaces. Whether prediction markets are allowed to go forward in the form they’re in now will, I think, be ultimately an issue for the courts and for Congress.”
- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com
