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Prediction markets say they do not offer a gambling platform.
“We don’t think it’s gambling. We just don’t.” Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour says of prediction markets versus traditional casinos and sports betting businesses.
He differentiates Kalshi’s model from these businesses by emphasizing that it’s user-to-user trading of event contracts, not betting against a house with set odds.
New Zealand disagrees.
New Zealand regulator, the Department of Internal Affairs, has stated that prediction market operators cannot offer what it considers gambling products to New Zealand residents under current laws.
“Since they aren’t authorized operators, they are prohibited from offering their gambling products to people in this country. To the extent these platforms are taking bets from New Zealand customers, they are breaching the law here and can expect to hear from us,” said Department of Internal Affairs Gambling Director, Vicki Scott, to Newsroom.
Because New Zealand does not currently geoblock gambling websites, Kalshi and Polymarket still have the ability to offer their services in the country.
More Country Opinions Are Coming
In the United States is becoming a battle between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and individual states.
The new chairperson of the CFTC, Michael Selig, has vowed to protect prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket rights to conduct business in all 50 US states.
“The CFTC will no longer sit idly by while overzealous state governments undermine the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over these markets by seeking to establish statewide prohibitions on these exciting products," Selig vowed during an appearance on CNBC in recent days.
Selig says that "when you get into derivative instruments" like those offered by prediction markets, "when there is a commodity involved, we have authority to regulate that."
States actively clamping down on prediction markets include Massachusetts, Nevada, Connecticut, Michigan, Illinois — through lawsuits or enforcement actions. New York, Iowa, Hawaii, Ohio, Pennsylvania are among those reviewing potential legislative responses. Massachusetts was specifically cited during the CNBC sit-down.
Canada at the moment has no clear “prediction market” framework, though short-term “yes/no” retail contracts often get treated like binary options under securities rules.
The United Kingdom Gambling Commission position is that most prediction-market products would be gambling (needing gambling licensing).
In Germany, the national gambling regulator (GGL) there has warned that token/event-contract “social betting” style prediction markets are not permitted or licensed.
France tends to treat unlicensed online wagering products as illegal.
Australia regulators have treated crypto prediction markets like Polymarket as illegal gambling.
- Aaron Goldstein, Gabling911.com
