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Five college basketball dark horses that could make a deep run and shock March Madness as the 2026 NCAA Tournament approaches.
Dark Horses to Watch
The end of football season doesn’t mean the start of the college basketball season, but it does focus more eyeballs in that direction. As of this mid-February writing, teams are 20-plus games into the season, so the sample size regarding contenders and pretenders is there
It’s the Wildcats of Arizona who are top-ranked to date, but losing their first game of the season to the Kansas Jayhawks in Lawrence may change that platitude. Though difficult to knock a 23-1 team, Arizona’s not without company when it comes to schools with a legitimate shot to cut down the March Madness nets in Indianapolis.
Arizona is also favored on the betting board (see below), along with the usual suspects who take money each season. Going with one of those bastions of basketball is safe, though not necessarily rewarding.
If you’re looking at some ‘dark horses,’ we might suggest a quintet including Iowa St., Kansas, Purdue, Connecticut, and Michigan St. Each has a tournament pedigree (if not titles) and each has proven itself against top-tier competition this season.
Looking at the board, they are currently priced at 15-1 (UConn Huskies and Kansas Jayhawks), 16-1 (Iowa St. Cyclones), 25-1 (Purdue Boilermakers), and 40-1 (Michigan St. Spartans)
Of course, the new world order of college athletics has leveled the playing field (or court, in this case), thus putting more teams in play (perhaps at the expense of the ‘Cinderellas’). It won’t be long before the brackets are out,
Here’s a bit of a primer on the men’s side of NCAA basketball in 2026…
What is March Madness?
In short, March Madness is the NCAA basketball tournament, both women’s and men’s. Each has 64 teams (that after ‘play-in’ games), divided into four regions of competition at designated sites. Those teams that survive their regions then make it to the Final Four, which in 2026 is at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Why Do They Call it March Madness?
The NCAA tournament earned the ‘March Madness’ moniker because of its unpredictability. There’s a long history of unheralded, lower-seeded teams stunning the studs. As was mentioned, we’re in a new world order of college athletics, reshaping the landscape. While this (theoretically) puts more teams in play in NCAAB odds, whether any of those teams are truly rank outsiders remains to be seen, at least when it comes to winning the title.
Who is Favored to Win the NCAA Tournament?
We’re not sexist in any way, shape, or form. However, limiting this missive to the men’s side of things, Arizona is the current 17-4 (+425) favorite to win the tournament, according to college basketball odds. This was written in mid-February, just as the Wildcats were coming off their first loss of the season, so the bettor should expect more ‘fluidity’ on the board.
Other schools in the mix include Michigan at 21-4 (+525), Duke (13-2, [+650] and Houston (17-2 [+850]). Everyone else is in double- or triple figures on the board, including last season’s champions Florida at 15-1 (+1500).
Before that, however, there are also conference tourney lines to ponder, as teams try to earn either automatic or ' at large’ berths to the Madness.
Any Final Thoughts?
There’s nothing quite as compelling as March Madness, since just about everyone and his mother (and/or father) fills out a bracket. When it comes to wagering on the tournament, bettors need to act fast when it comes to doing their homework. That doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made in the tourney, as there are invariably some ‘bad’ lines involving teams with no history against one another.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
