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Shocking newly released odds courtesy of BetOnline show that the Democrats are, for the first time, favored to take control of the Senate.
A months long trend shows what would have been considered inconceivable just nine months ago.
With everything that's going on around the world, it appears the Republican Party is falling out of favor.
Well, at least with the bettors...we can't speculate about the voters.
The Senate control odds following the upcoming Midterm elections flipped to the Democrats today at BetOnline.ag.
Earlier this month, the GOP was a small favorite to have Senate control, but now the Dems are slightly odds-on.
Here's the timeline of changes:
Senate Control Odds - June 5, 2025
Republicans -650
Democrats +400
Senate Control Odds - Dec. 3, 2025
Republicans -300
Democrats +200
Senate Control Odds - March 4, 2026
Republicans -130
Democrats +100
Senate Control Odds - March 27, 2026
Republicans -110
Democrats -120
Which Dems Most Likely to Flip a Seat
The Democrats only need to flip three seats to take control of the Senate. Easier said than done just a few months back, but now the chances are much more likely.
Graham Platner (Maine)
Recent March 2026 polling shows progressive Graham Platner holding a significant lead over Governor Janet Mills in the Maine Democratic U.S. Senate primary, with one Emerson College poll placing him ahead 55% to 28%. Platner leads by large margins among both men and women, prompting the Mills campaign to run negative ads.
Regardless of who wins the Democratic primary, they'll still be the likely favorite versus Susan Collins, the always vulnerable Republican Senator.
Collins will occasionally vote with Democrats on certain issues, so her loss alone won't be seen as catastrophic for the Republicans.
Roy Cooper (North Carolina)
Fun fact: Roy Cooper has never lost a race.
He first ran for office in the 1980s and has been winning ever since.
The popular former governor of North Carolina is now favored to win Tom Tillis (Republican) open seat.
James Talarico (Texas)
If there is ever a year Texas could elect a Democratic Senator, it's 2026 with James Talarico.
A Christian pastor, Talarico checks off many of the boxes that make him appealing to Republican voters.
The Republican candidate is not yet known as a runoff is set for May 26.
The incumbent, John Cornyn, is seen as less of a polarizing figure than Paxton and doesn't have the same type of baggage (Paxton's wife cited "Biblical grounds" upon filing for divorce).
These are poll results as of this month:
Talarico vs. Cornyn
Impact Research (Mar 12–17, 2026):
Talarico 43%
Cornyn 41%
Public Policy Polling (Mar 4–5, 2026):
Talarico 44%
Cornyn 43%
YouGov / Univ. of Houston (Jan 2026):
Cornyn 44%
Talarico 43%
Talarico vs. Paxton
Impact Research (Mar 2026):
Talarico 44%
Paxton 43%
Public Policy Polling (Mar 2026):
Talarico 47%
Paxton 45%
YouGov (Jan 2026):
Paxton 46%
Talarico 44%
Emerson (Jan 2026):
Tie 46%–46%
Emerson (Jan 2026):
Cornyn 47%
Talarico 44%
Georgia and Iowa
Georgia is the one state that could still go in the opposite direction with Democrat John Ossoff looking to defend his seat.
Serious GOP candidates include the following:
Buddy Carter – U.S. Rep (coastal Georgia)
Mike Collins – U.S. Rep, strong Trump-aligned candidate
Derek Dooley – former University of Tennessee football coach (backed by Gov. Kemp)
Iowa, meanwhile, will have an open seat with Republican Joni Ernst retiring.
Democrats see an opening but Iowa has shifted Republican over the last decade.
The organization, VoteVets, is spending $825,000 in the coming week to back Josh Turek, who is widely seen as the favored candidate of the Senate Democratic leadership. He's a state legislator and a former Paralympic gold medalist on the United States men’s wheelchair basketball team.
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
