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Those trading on Polymarket had the price of Brent Crude Oil rising above the price of $120 with an 84% chance as of Tuesday morning. And while 79% were backing the under $110 market, nearly a quarter (21%) believed the price of oil would rise above $150. That number crept up to 23% by 11:15 am EDT.
Trump has set an 8 p.m. ET deadline for the U.S. and Iran to strike a deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, otherwise the U.S. will destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges. However, his latest comments and new reports suggest an agreement by then is unlikely, as he said in a Truth Social post Tuesday: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”
Oil prices have spiked because the war has snarled the production and transportation of crude in the Persian Gulf. Much of that oil exits the gulf through the Strait of Hormuz to reach customers around the world, but Iran has blocked it to enemies.
The price for a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude climbed 3.8% to $116.72. Brent crude, the international standard, added 0.7% to $110.58 and is well above its roughly $70 level from before the war in late February.
The latest developments depressed equity prices and bolstered oil. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 3% at above $116 per barrel. International Brent crude futures advanced 0.8% to above $110 a barrel.
The worry in markets has been that a long-term disruption will keep oil prices high for a long time and send a painful wave of inflation crashing through the global economy. Iran on Monday rejected the latest ceasefire proposal and instead said it wants a permanent end to the war.
- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com
