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U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday said the U.S. Navy would “immediately” begin a blockade to stop ships from entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, after U.S.-Iran peace talks in Pakistan ended without an agreement. Iran has demanded the right to collect tolls from vessels traveling through the strait, but Trump said no one who paid them would “have safe passage on the high seas.”
Earlier in the day, the United States and Iran ended 21 hours of face-to-face talks in Islamabad without reaching a deal, leaving the fate of the fragile, two-week ceasefire still unclear.
Strait of Hormuz betting markets were seeing millions of dollars in trading volume at Polymarket as of Sunday morning (April 12).
Traders were hardly confident that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April with just 14% believing that it will. Close to 50% felt ships would begin to transit through this vital waterway by month's end.
That particular market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Trump on Sunday issued new warnings to strike Iran’s civilian infrastructure if its leaders do not agree to give up its nuclear program.
“In one half of a day they wouldn’t have one bridge standing, they wouldn’t have one electric generating plant standing and they’re back in the stone ages,” Trump said.
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
