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The news cycle could hardly be worse for Donald Trump, J.D. Vance and the Republican Party.
Their domestic poll numbers are dismal as a war that continues to lose public support drags on. Trump is also facing criticism for sharing an AI-generated image of himself as Jesus—a move that could alienate a key GOP voting bloc.
As a result, odds across BetOnline’s political markets are shifting sharply against the Republicans.
First, Democrats’ odds of winning the Senate have their greatest chances at -140 odds. They are now strong favorites in four currently red states, enough to secure a 51–49 majority. Most critically, significant market moves have been seen in Ohio and Alaska.
In the race for the 2028 presidency, Vance has been overtaken as the favorite by Democratic frontrunner Gavin Newsom. The Democrats now hold six of the Top 10 spots on BetOnline's list.
Finally, Trump’s odds of completing his full term have dropped to just -150...a historic low for an incumbent president. With growing speculation about his health and the potential invocation of the 25th Amendment, he is now only a +300 chance to leave office in 2026.
Given that Democrats are overwhelmingly likely to win the House, a third impeachment is now a -350 likelihood. More immediately, the over/under line for his approval rating on May 1st has hit an all-time low of 38.5%.
2028 US Presidential Election Winner
Gavin Newsom +350
J.D. Vance +375
Marco Rubio +700
A. Ocasio-Cortez +1400
Kamala Harris +1800
Jon Ossoff +1800
Mark Kelly +2000
Josh Shapiro +2200
Donald Trump +2800
Tucker Carlson +2800
Senate Control
Democrats -140
Republicans +110
Maine Senate
Democrats -600 (was -350)
Republicans +350
Ohio Senate
Democrats -200 (was -130)
Republicans +150
Alaska Senate
Democrats -250 (was -120)
Republicans +170
Trump Exit Date
2026 +300
2027 +350
2028 +650
2029 -150
Trump Approval Rating on May 1st
Over/Under 38.5
Trump to Be Impeached Before End of Term
Yes -350
No +225
- BetOnline Press
