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Commandment has long 6-1 odds that would pay out $600 for every $100 bet
His win at this year's Florida Derby provides a huge edge for this year's Kentucky Derby
Commandment will pay out $600 for every $100 bet to win the 2026 Kentucky Derby.
Commandment's win at this Florida Derby provides him with quite the boost coming into Saturday's Kentucky Derby.
Florida Derby winners have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby 25 times (more than any other prep race)
By the slimmest of margins -- a photo finish -- Commandment won the Florida Derby, overtaking The Puma (who is listed at 10-1 odds to win the Kentucky Derby). Horses that fight in close finishes often translate well to Derby conditions.
It was the fourth consecutive win for Commandment.
"He's a racehorse, bottom line," said trainer Brad Cox, who saddled the Florida Derby winner for the second consecutive year. "He always shows up. ... He's a Grade 1 winner. Florida Derby's a big race. Proud of the horse. Very proud of the horse."
Brad Cox has one Kentucky Derby victory. Mandaloun won in 2021 after Medina Spirit was disqualified.
Jockey Luis Saez won his only Kentucky Derby in 2019 with Country House, but only after Maximum Security was disqualified.
Other Pros
- Commandment not only has the most wins, but also the best strike rate in the 2026 Derby field.
- Has shown the ability to settle, respond to cues, and finish willingly.
- Coming off a peak effort in late March gives him a classic 5-week Derby spacing, which historically has been met with great success in terms of a very effective prep-to-Derby timeline.
- Horses breaking from Post 10 in the Kentucky Derby have won 9 times.
Other Cons
- His numbers are competitive, but not clearly superior to the top contenders.
- Churchill Downs is a different surface and environment, which not all horses handle equally.
- He is not a dominant closer.
2026 Kentucky Derby Odds to Win
All odds courtesy of BetPhoenix here
| Post | Horse | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renegade | 4-1 |
| 2 | Albus | 30-1 |
| 3 | Intrepido | 50-1 |
| 4 | Litmas Test | 30-1 |
| 5 | Right to Party | 30-1 |
| 6 | Commandment | 6-1 |
| 7 | Danon Bourbon | 20-1 |
| 8 | So Happy | 15-1 |
| 9 | The Puma | 10-1 |
| 10 | Wonder Dean | 30-1 |
| 11 | Incredibolt | 20-1 |
| 12 | Chief Wallabee | 8-1 |
| 13 | Silent Tactic | 20-1 |
| 14 | Potente | 20-1 |
| 15 | Emerging Market | 15-1 |
| 16 | Pavlovian | 30-1 |
| 17 | Six Speed | 50-1 |
| 18 | Further Ado | 6-1 |
| 19 | Golden Tempo | 30-1 |
| 20 | Fulleffort | 20-1 |
- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com
