What Are the Payout Odds if Potente Wins This Year's Kentucky Derby?

Submitted by Don Shapiro on

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Don Shapiro

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Potente
  • Potente will pay out $2000 for every $100 bet should he win this year's Kentucky Derby

  • Trained by Bob Baffert, this automatically gives Potente a major edge

Potente is not necessarily a favorite to win this year's Kentucky Derby with payout odds of 20-1 ($2000 for every $100 bet).  He is, however, trained by Bob Baffert. 

And why that's important is pretty obvious.  Baffert has won a mind-blowing six Kentucky Derby races: Years: 1997, 1998, 2002, 2015, 2018, 2020.

Potente is a 3 year old colt and has raced in 2026. He was sired by Into Mischief out of the Awesome Again mare Sweet Sting.

He finished 2nd at the Santa Anita Derby (G1), his most recent start, and 1st at the San Felipe (G2).  Both finishes can be seen as strong outings leading up to the Kentucky Derby. 

Even better, Potente completed his major Kentucky Derby preparations on Saturday with a five-furlong bullet drill in :57.80, the fastest of 23 workers. Later in the day, he received post position 14 for the 152nd running of the first leg of the Triple Crown.

“I didn’t think he was going that fast, I look down [at the stopwatch] and go ‘Oh, he was going a little fast,’ but [rider Martin Garcia] had a hold of him the whole way,” trainer Bob Baffert told Daily Racing Form.

“It looks like it took nothing out of him, so that’s the important thing,” Baffert told DRF. “You don’t really want to see them work that fast, but I’ve had horses work that fast and run really well.”

The 14 post position start is considered favorable. 

Jockey Juan Hernández is considered among the West Coast's top riders, but we will see how this translates at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.  He has limited success here. 

Other Pros

  • He has faced tough competition and prevailed.
  • Identified as a speed horse who can get to the front early.
  • Lightly raced yet fast development observed.

Other Cons

  • Set a fast pace in the Santa Anita Derby but weakened in the stretch.
  • Very few career starts compared to some rivals.

2026 Kentucky Derby Odds to Win

All odds courtesy of BetPhoenix here

PostHorse Odds
1Renegade4-1
2Albus30-1
3Intrepido50-1
4Litmas Test30-1
5Right to Party30-1
6Commandment6-1
7Danon Bourbon20-1
8So Happy15-1
9The Puma10-1
10Wonder Dean30-1
11Incredibolt20-1
12Chief Wallabee8-1
13Silent Tactic20-1
14Potente20-1
15Emerging Market15-1
16Pavlovian30-1
17Six Speed50-1
18Further Ado6-1
19Golden Tempo30-1
20Fulleffort20-1

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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