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A new poll shows that incumbent Kentucky congressman Thomas Massie has fallen behind challenger and U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed Ed Gallrein
Prediction markets still give Massie a 60% chance of winning while Betonline has had Massie as the favorite
One of the most highly anticipated primary races comes on Tuesday May 19 when Republican congressman incumbent Republican Congressman Thomas Massie (KY) fights to retain his seat.
A new poll shows that Massie has slipped more than five points behind his GOP challenger, former Navy SEAL and businessman Ed Gallrein.
Quantus Insights surveyed some 900 likely Republican voters in the Bluegrass State on May 11-12 and found that 48.2 percent support Gallrein over Massie with 43.1 percent support.
Massie has led in most other polls and Nate Silver grades Quantus Insights with a B/C.
Massie has a contentious relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump. The president has backed Gallrein in this race.
Prediction markets give Massie a 60% chance of winning and Gallrein a 39% chance. BetOnline, which will offer betting on this House race, had this one off the board late Wednesday although Massie had been a decent size favorite over the past few months. He had enjoyed a significant lead heading into the month of May. A Quantus conducted in early April found Massie up 46.8 percent to Gallrein’s 37.7 percent.
Newsweek reported, “Another April poll of 433 registered Republicans conducted by Big Data Poll, found Massie ahead 53.4 percent to 47.6 percent. Massie had significant support from voters under 30 at 78.5 percent. The poll was conducted between April 3-7 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.”
Some controversies involving Massie may play a role in this being a much closer race.
Allegations from a former girlfriend, Cynthia West, claim Massie offered her $5,000 in “hush money” to drop a complaint involving one of his congressional allies. West also accused him of emotional abuse.
Massie has publicly denied the allegations, calling them “false and unsubstantiated,” and says he has consulted a lawyer.
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
