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A day after early voting started for the Texas Republican U.S. Senate runoff, U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent John Cornyn, much to the dismay of a number of establishment Republicans currently serving in the Senate.
But Democrats were certainly rejoicing on Tuesday. Many viewed Cornyn as the more difficult of the two candidates to beat. Assuming he wins - and he will as a -2500 favorite - Paxton will enter the general election with a great deal of baggage.
Tuesday's news has created a massive ripple in the runoff odds.
Paxton, who started as a small favorite to be the nominee way back in November 2025 and climbed as high as -700 (Feb. 26). He then lost the lead, regained it to the odds of -200 Tuesday, is now again a massive favorite.
Here are the latest numbers from BetOnline:
Texas Senate Runoff Election
Ken Paxton -2500
John Cornyn +1000
(NOTE: Odds equate to an 96.2% implied probability Paxton will win)
For the Senate election, Democrat James Talarico found himself a small favorite to take the seat back on March 4, but had shifted back to a slight underdog by mid-April.
On Tuesday, we’ve seen the favorites flip as “Uncle Rico” is now back in the driver’s seat.
2026 U.S. Senate Odds (Texas)
James Talarico -130
Cornyn/Paxton +100
(NOTE: Odds equate to an 56.5% implied probability Talarico will win)
