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Erling Haaland's two goals dragged Norway into the World Cup quarter-finals for the first time in their history. Now England stand between him and something far greater.
A week ago, this would have seemed absurd. Haaland as a genuine Golden Boot contender? Norway, a nation that hadn't reached the knockout stages since 1938, knocking out Brazil in the process? The odds made no sense. But then Norway beat Brazil 2-0, and suddenly everything shifted.
It wasn't supposed to happen that way at MetLife. Carlo Ancelotti's Brazil, with their experience and pedigree, were among the tournament favourites with social casino sites. They had Neymar during his last dance. Yet Haaland arrived at the exact moment Norway needed him most.
His Manchester City season had been respectable but not spectacular by his standards. Here, in America, he's found another gear entirely.
Seven goals in just over four games, converting seven goals from just 18 shots. Unstoppable momentum. And now, facing the country he was born in, he's become the focal point of the entire World Cup narrative. He’ll lead the Viking march, rowing the boat and banging the drum with the fans, but on an individual basis he must also have one eye on that Golden Boot.
Before he takes on England, here's why Haaland suddenly has a genuine chance of finishing as the tournament's top scorer.
Where is Haaland in the World Cup Golden Boot race?
For the first time in a long time, this has been a World Cup where every world-class player is performing. It’s one of the most competitive Golden Boot races in recent tournament history.
Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé have already both surpassed Miroslav Klose's all-time scoring record. Vinícius Jr, Ousmane Dembélé, Harry Kane, Cristiano Ronaldo - almost every elite forward has delivered at this tournament with a goal or big moment.
Unlike previous World Cups dominated by a single player, everyone at the highest level is performing simultaneously.
Haaland has already scored seven goals at the World Cup, bagging braces against Iraq, Senegal and Brazil, as well as one in the win over Ivory Coast. What a way to turn up in your first major tournament sitting joint top scorer and with odds of 13/2 going into the last eight.
His goals keep him firmly in contention. But it also means every remaining game carries weight. Opportunities are disappearing. For forwards still in the tournament, momentum matters as much as individual brilliance.
The race is becoming less about volume and more about decisive moments. Who steps up when it matters most.
Norway’s run has changed everything
A week ago, Norway eliminating Brazil felt impossible. Yes, the Selecao only just edged past Japan in injury time, but they had enough experience to beat a Norway team at their first World Cup since 1998. Or so everyone thought.
Haaland produced when the pressure was highest. He beat Gabriel again, another chapter in a rivalry Premier League fans know intimately from countless Manchester City-Arsenal battles.
But what matters most is belief. Norway suddenly feels capable of something historic. That confidence spreads to the supporting cast. The wider team.
The system is built to feed Haaland goals, but it wouldn’t work if the creators didn’t pull their weight. Manager Ståle Solbakken has managed to get his best creators around the big man while not stifling the likes of Martin Ødegaard and Borussia Dortmund’s Julian Ryerson.
England can spoil the party
Kane versus Haaland isn't just a quarter-final. It's bigger than that. Two of the world's best number nines. The winner almost certainly stays alive in the Golden Boot race. The loser probably doesn't.
England's right-back uncertainty, highlighted by Jarell Quansah’s red card against Mexico, creates space behind their full-backs. Norway's supporting cast will look to isolate Haaland early. More importantly, England will probably attack more than Brazil did.
England's defensive quality shouldn't be underestimated. Ezri Konsa knows him well from club football. Guehi and Stones will have faced him countless times in training at Manchester City. England know exactly what makes him dangerous.
But there's a larger issue. Norway will still spend long periods defending. Fewer attacking sequences naturally reduce opportunities.
In a tournament where France and Argentina look destined for deep runs too, you’d expect Mbappé and Messi to score at least one more before the next round, so Haaland will need to find the back of the net to put himself in any kind of top scorer contention.
The Prediction
Before Brazil, a Haaland Golden Boot seemed unlikely. Now it feels like one of the defining subplots of the tournament.
He's arrived at the form of his international career at exactly the right moment. Norway believe they can beat anyone.
England is comfortably the biggest immediate obstacle. But even if Norway get past them, Messi and Argentina could await in the semi-finals.
The road ahead is long and brutal. Still, the Norwegians have already invaded this tournament and are punching well above their weight.
For a nation absent from the World Cup for 26 years, just reaching the quarter-finals is historic. Every match Haaland plays now is a bonus, and every goal extends what's already become one of the tournament's greatest stories.
The Golden Boot race has become as unpredictable as the World Cup itself. Right now, no player embodies that better than Erling Haaland. One more inspired performance against England could transform Norway's greatest footballing story into an individual triumph as well.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
