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These are today's biggest stories and betting markets shaping the prediction market industry Monday July 27, 2026.
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"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office (Higher Strikes)
Sunday July 26, 2026 (10:15 pm EDT)
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" opens July 31 and, of course, there is a betting market for the box office receipts its first weekend. This market will resolve at Kalshi according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). 280-290m has the best shot at 46%.
Potential World Cup Manipulation on Polymarket Flagged by Sports Advisory Group
Sunday July 26, 2026 (10:01 pm EDT)
Group of Copenhagen monitored all 104 matches for integrity and possible improprieties and found that 15 games rose to the level of requiring enhanced monitoring. The group also assessed 12 major controversies from an "integrity risk perspective." Parts of the yet-to-be released report were leaked to the New York Times with Spain not to defeat Cape Verde in their group stage game among those singled out. The report notes that $4.8 million was placed on Polymarket for Spain not to defeat Cape Verde. The goalless result was among this year's World Cup's biggest stunners. Spain was a tournament favorite and went on to win the championship. Cape Verde was playing its first-ever World Cup game. A market opened at Polymarket based on the red card issued to the U.S. Men's National Team striker Folarin Balogun also drew suspicion. That market asked “Will Folarin Balogun play against Belgium?” That was the same day that Balogun was issued a red card in U.S.'s match against Bosnia and Herzegovina. The red card meant Balogun would not be able to play in the match against Belgium. Details of how much was traded ahead of FIFA overturning the red card days later remain unknown.
Average Gas Prices to Stay Under $4.16 This Week, According to Prediction Markets
Sunday July 26, 2026 (9:52 pm EDT)
The average U.S. gas price on July 26, 2026, was $4.11 per gallon for regular unleaded, driven upward by rising crude oil costs and regional conflict. Florida Average: $3.99 per gallon for regular gasoline. With the month coming to a close, traders have gas prices going above $4.16 at just an 11 percent chance. Compare that with 58% who see prices going above $4.12. No traders are backing prices above $4.22 to close out the month.
Jackson Koivun Already Among the Favorites to Win This Week's Rocket Classic
Sunday July 26, 2026 (9:40 pm EDT)
Jackson Koivun won the 3M Open by three strokes Sunday in only his third start as a professional, holding off Scott Scheffler with a closing 5-under 66 for a tournament-record 25-under 259 total. “All throughout the crowd I kept hearing, ‘Scottie’s coming. Scottie’s coming,’” the 21-year-old Koivun said. “I just tried to tune that out and keep playing the golf I knew I could.” Koivun is a sportsbook's dream and could be just what the golf world has been yearning for all these years since Tiger Woods troubles (both personally and physically). His chances of winning the upcoming Rocket Classic were 6.5%, second only to Cameron Young at 8.4%. The traffic coming into the Gambling911.com website for Koivun was intense for a good hour Sunday evening.
Troy Jackson Now at 61% Chance of Being Elected Next Senator of Maine
Sunday July 26, 2026 (9:26 pm EDT)
Graham who? The Democratic party in Maine appears not to have lost much of a step in filling the void left by controversial candidate Graham Platner. The party sprung into action quickly after Platner announced earlier this month he'd be dropping out of the race. Troy Jackson has since emerged as the replacement choice. In an exclusive interview with Meet the Press, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) says he believes Troy Jackson is a “strong candidate” who can beat Republican Senator Susan Collins after Jackson replaced Graham Platner on the ballot. Susan Collins was briefly favored over the yet-to-be-decided Democratic candidate from around July 6 through July 11. By July 13, Jackson was beating Collins at Kalshi by 5 percentage points and is currently up 22 points with $1.7 million in volume.
Xavier Becerra Now at 95% Chance to Win California Governor's Race
Sunday July 26, 2026 (9:26 pm EDT)
Kalshi traders now have Democrat Xavier Becerra with a 95% chance of beating Republican Steve Hilton to become California's next governor. Hilton's odds have been cut in half since Becerra became the Democratic nominee, down from a 10% chance to just over 5% today. This race was one of the most trafficked here at Gambling911.com this year.
Rams Make Roster Moves Ahead of First Training Camp Practice
Sunday July 26, 2026 (9:14 pm EDT)
The Rams’ first practice is on Sunday, July 26. The Rams remain relatively healthy, with two exceptions. They “Declared Non-Football Injury OL Justin Dedich” and “Declared Physically Unable to Perform CB Al’zillion Hamilton. The Rams’ roster is deep enough that being without Dedich and Hamilton for a period during training camp should not derail their plans while neither will have any impact on the odds. The prediction markets currently have the Rams as the favorite to win the 2027 Super Bowl with a 16% chance of doing so. That's double that of the team with the second shortest odds, the Buffalo Bills (8%). Just over $48 million has been traded thus far.
Sports Betting Alliance Staying Out of Prediction Market Fight
Sunday July 26, 2026 (9:14 pm EDT)
The trade group, which represents FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics Sportsbook, and bet365, has not adopted a formal position on prediction markets, even as three of its members – DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics – now operate or have entered the emerging sector. Instead, SBA president Joe Maloney told Covers the organization’s mission remains centered on expanding and strengthening state-regulated sports betting and iGaming, leaving individual companies to determine their own business strategies. (source: CDC Gaming)
Wisconsin Threatens to Strip the Vote From Prediction Market Participants
Sunday July 26, 2026 (9:05 pm EDT)
This past week, multiple state news outlets reported that the WEC sent out a news release warning Wisconsin voters that “if you bet on an election, it could cost you your vote.” In the news release, which was posted on X by Milwaukee TV station WISN political director Matt Smith, WEC Administrator Meagan Wolfe states, “We want voters to understand that they cannot legally make a bet on an election and cast a ballot in that same election,” WEC Administrator Meagan Wolfe said. “We are not able to police someone placing a bet on these platforms, but it’s important for voters to understand the consequences if they bet on an election outcome.”
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- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com
