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These are today's biggest stories and betting markets shaping the prediction market industry Monday August 3, 2026.
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Iran-US Conflict Updates
Sunday August 2, 2026 (9:43 pm EDT)
President Trump has called off new attacks on Iran for the time being, insisting an end to the war is close. He's also again calling for the "immediate" re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Imtiaz Tyab reports. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian meanwhile urges the US to “remain committed” to the memorandum of understanding signed between the two countries in June and says the interim deal “will be the centre of gravity” of Tehran’s “foreign relations in the future”. 56% of prediction market traders believe a permanent peace agreement will be entered into before January of next year. That's down from 76% just two weeks ago prior to bombing resuming.
Bet on When Will Todd Blanche be Confirmed?
Sunday August 2, 2026 (9:33 pm EDT)
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche's bid for permanent confirmation has stalled in the Senate Judiciary Committee after Republicans John Cornyn and Thom Tillis withheld support, according to CNN. Their holdup centers on a Justice Department settlement Blanche oversaw that shielded President Trump's tax returns from IRS audits, a deal that drew bipartisan criticism. Prediction market traders are split, but only 54% believe this will happen before year's end. 44% say before November 1.
Pro Baseball New CBA Agreement Before Dec 2, 2026?
Sunday August 2, 2026 (9:33 pm EDT)
Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association are negotiating a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, with the current deal set to expire at 11:59 p.m. ET on December 1, according to ESPN. Owners are pushing for a salary cap while the union has called that proposal a non-starter, setting up the possibility of a lockout that could threaten the 2027 season. Traders are giving this a 90% chance of NOT having a new agreement set by year's end.
George Santos Fined and Banned Over Kalshi Prediction Market Trades
Sunday August 2, 2026 (9:15 pm EDT)
Federal regulators on Friday announced penalties for former U.S. Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) for allegedly manipulating and trading on prediction markets about whether he would attend the 2026 State of the Union address. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Santos had agreed to pay a civil fine of $17,500 and to relinquish the $17,569.98 in profits he gained from his "unlawful trading." "While buying and selling positions in this market, Santos posted on social media about his plans to attend or not attend the SOTU," the CFTC said in a statement. "In his social media posts, Santos made a series of material misrepresentations and omissions about whether he would attend the SOTU." "After these posts, the SOTU contract prices moved in a direction that was favorable to Santos' positions which allowed him to make over $17,500." (source: Axios)
New York Governor Fires Back at Kyle Kuzma Over Kalshi Lawsuit Defense
Sunday August 2, 2026 (9:15 pm EDT)
New York Governor Hochul on August 2 defended her state's lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi after NBA player Kyle Kuzma criticized it on social media. Kuzma had claimed the ban was designed to protect the casino lobby, and disclosed he is a Kalshi investor. Hochul fired back that Kalshi ignored state laws protecting residents from illegal gambling and is being held accountable. The exchange turned a legal dispute into public political friction. (read more at Prediction News)
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- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com
