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OAKLAND Fla. (Gambling911.com) - BetOnline, one of the leading gambling sites covering political races worldwide, had Florida State Rep. Angie Nixon (D) paying out $1200 for every $100 bet to win the Florida Senate race Friday morning. Ashley Moody (R) was listed as an unbetable -2500 favorite. Then this happened....
A new poll by St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics — properly weighted to reflect Republicans’ current voter registration advantage — showed the race in a dead heat, 45% to 45%.
This comes less than a month ago, CNN’s data guru Harry Enten proclaimed that the Moody vs. Nixon Senate race looked like one of the few bright spots for Republicans. The common wisdom: Nixon’s definitely not supposed to win in November....especially in what has become a reliably red state in recent years.
The poll was conducted from Sept. 15 to 17 with 913 likely voters drawn at random from Florida’s registered voter files, using automated phone calls and text messages. The margin of error was +/- 3.2 percentage points.
Florida Politics publisher Peter Schorsch noted, “Republicans hold an advantage of more than 1.5 million registered voters over Democrats in Florida,” so the sample was weighted to reflect the Florida Division of Elections’ active voter numbers: 42% Republican, 31% Democratic, and 27% a third party or independent.
In other Florida elections odds news, Byron Donalds (R) is less of a commanding favorite over David Jolly (D), who pays out $300 for every $100 bet. In fact, BetOnline believes Moody stands an eight times better chance than Donalds of winning her respective race. The Florida governor's odds are far more competitive. If Donalds were pitching for the Yankees against the Rockies as a -300 favorite, his chances would be better than 90%. In politics, he's more in the 60% chance threshold.
Bill Nelson was the last Democrat to serve in the Florida Senate from 2001–2019. He won elections in 2000, 2006 and 2012 before losing narrowly to Rick Scott in 2018.
The last Democrat elected governor of Florida was Lawton Chiles who served until 1998. He was term-limited and couldn't run again, but would ultimately die in office. His Democratic lieutenant governor, Buddy MacKay, then became governor for the remaining few weeks of Chiles' term.
Should Democrats get excited about the latest St. Pete Polls?
Maybe reason to be a little hopeful, but probably not time to buy the champagne just yet.
In the 2020 Florida presidential race, for example, its final poll had Biden ahead 1.1 points, while Trump ultimately won Florida by about 3.4 points—an error of roughly 4.5 points toward the Democrats. In the 2022 FL-13 House race, it had Republican Anna Paulina Luna ahead by only 0.6, while she ultimately won by about 8.1, another sizable miss.
For gamblers, however, a $10 bet on Nixon pays out $120 should she somehow manage to pull this one off. If you have $10 to spare, there is certainly some value to be had here.
- T C Jackson, Gambling911.com
