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DES MOINES, Iowa (Gambling911.com) - The latest YouGov poll, conducted between October 6 and October 12, surveyed 2,245 likely Iowa voters has Democrat senate candidate Josh Turek with a narrow lead over Republican senate candidate Ashley Hinson—47% to 46%, with 4% of respondents still undecided.
The gambling website BetOnline still has Hinson priced as the -140 favorite and Turek paying out $110 for every $100 bet should he win. Hinson's odds have improved somewhat over the last two weeks. She was previously priced at -130.
At -140, the market is pricing Hinson at roughly a 58% chance of victory, meaning about a 42% chance she does not win. Her chances of winning had previously been at 56.2%.
The recent poll also suggests that Turek appears to be making inroads among US President Donald Trump voters; 41% of participants supported former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 compared to 52% who chose Trump, suggesting that Turek has garnered some support from this demographic.
The poll has a margin of error of 3.1%.
And the Iowa polling is all over the map. A Suffolk University poll from early October had Turek up by 4 points, while others had him trailing.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates Iowa’s Senate race as a “toss-up,” but according to Decision Desk HQ, Hinson is narrowly seen as the favorite to win the race.
The last time a Democrat from Iowa was elected to the Senate was in 2008.
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- T C Jackson, Gambling911.com
