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AUSTIN, Texas (Gambling911.com) - Recent polls out of Texas have shown the Senate race there is tightening. Trillionaire Elon Musk has poured approximately $190 million into the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race, primarily supporting Republican Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico.
That money might not be well spent, assuming the prediction markets and traditional gambling sites are correct.
Kalshi and BetOnline are mostly in agreement.
Traders at Kalshi have moved Talarico's chances of winning from 62% to 67% in just the last week while BetOnline has Talario as the -185 favorite (implying a 65% chance of him winning).
The senate race here suddenly has Talarico in a fight with Musk.
Musk earlier in the day had tweeted, “There is something deeply wrong with Talarico.”
Talarico responded, " “There is something deeply wrong with a political system that allows one trillionaire to buy his own personal U.S. Senator.”
“In all likelihood, if you’ve seen an attack ad on your screen, that was Elon. If you’ve gotten lies in your mailbox, that was Elon,” Talarico added.
The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline here.
| State | Candidate | Odds | Probability |
| Alabama | Barry Moore (R) | -5000 | 98% |
| Everett Weiss (D) | +1600 | 2% | |
| Moore Margin of Victory | O/U 19.5% | ||
| Alaska | Dan Sullivan (R) | +250 | 24% |
| Mary Peltola (D) | -325 | 76% | |
| Arkansas | Tom Cotton (R) | -2500 | 96% |
| Hallie Schoffner (D) | +1200 | 4% | |
| Cotton Margin of Victory | O/U 15.5% | ||
| Colorado | Mark Baisley (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| John Hickenlooper (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Hickenlooper Margin of Victory | O/U 22.5% | ||
| Delaware | Michael Katz (R) | +4000 | 1% |
| Chris Coons (D) | -20000 | 99% | |
| Coons Margin of Victory | O/U 28.5% | ||
| Florida (Special) | Ashley Moody (R) | -1600 | 94% |
| Angie Nixon (D) | +800 | 6% | |
| Moody Margin of Victory | O/U 7.5% | ||
| Georgia | Mike Collins (R) | +1600 | 2% |
| Jon Ossoff (D) | -5000 | 98% | |
| Ossoff Margin of Victory | O/U 9.5% | ||
| Idaho | Jim Risch (R) | -1800 | 95% |
| Todd Achilles (I) | +900 | 4% | |
| David Roth (D) | +10000 | 1% | |
| Risch Margin of Victory | O/U 18.5% | ||
| Illinois | Don Tracy (R) | +4000 | 1% |
| Juliana Stratton (D) | -20000 | 99% | |
| Stratton Margin of Victory | O/U 22.5% | ||
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson (R) | -140 | 58% |
| Josh Turek (D) | +110 | 42% | |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall (R) | -180 | 64% |
| Adam Hamilton (D) | +150 | 36% | |
| Kentucky | Andy Barr (R) | -4000 | 98% |
| Charles Booker (D) | +1500 | 2% | |
| Barr Margin of Victory | O/U 20.5% | ||
| Louisiana | Julia Letlow (R) | -4000 | 98% |
| Jamie Davis (D) | +1500 | 2% | |
| Maine | Susan Collins (R) | +145 | 36% |
| Troy Jackson (D) | -175 | 64% | |
| Massachusetts | John Deaton (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Ed Markey (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Markey Margin of Victory | O/U 32.5% | ||
| Michigan | Mike Rogers (R) | +215 | 27% |
| Abdul El-Sayed (M) | -275 | 73% | |
| Minnesota | Michele Tafoya (R) | +700 | 7% |
| Peggy Flanagan (D) | -1400 | 93% | |
| Flanagan Margin of Victory | O/U 6.5% | ||
| Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | -1000 | 91% |
| Scott Colom (D) | +600 | 9% | |
| Hyde-Smith Margin of Victory | O/U 7.5% | ||
| Montana | Kurt Alme (R) | -2000 | 95% |
| Seth Bodnar (I) | +1000 | 4% | |
| Alani Bankhead (D) | +5000 | 1% | |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts (R) | -300 | 75% |
| Dan Osborn (I) | +240 | 25% | |
| New Hampshire | John Sununu (R) | +700 | 7% |
| Chris Pappas (D) | -1400 | 93% | |
| Pappas Margin of Victory | O/U 8.5% | ||
| New Jersey | Justin Murphy (R) | +1800 | 1% |
| Cory Booker (D) | -7500 | 99% | |
| Booker Margin of Victory | O/U 24.5% | ||
| New Mexico | Larry Marker (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Ben Ray Lujan (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Lujan Margin of Victory | O/U 20.5% | ||
| North Carolina | Michael Whatley (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Roy Cooper (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Ohio (Special) | Jon Husted (R) | +185 | 31% |
| Sherrod Brown (D) | -225 | 69% | |
| Oklahoma | Kevin Hern (R) | -5000 | 98% |
| N'kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) | +1600 | 2% | |
| Hern Margin of Victory | O/U 23.5% | ||
| Oregon | David Brock Smith (R) | +1600 | 2% |
| Jeff Merkley (D) | -5000 | 98% | |
| Merkley Margin of Victory | O/U 23.5% | ||
| Rhode Island | Raymond McKay (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Jack Reed (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Reed Margin of Victory | O/U 30.5% | ||
| South Carolina | Darline Graham (R) | -600 | 86% |
| Annie Andrews (D) | +400 | 14% | |
| Graham Margin of Victory | O/U 4.5% | ||
| South Dakota | Mike Rounds (R) | -2000 | 95% |
| Brian Bengs (I) | +1000 | 5% | |
| Rounds Margin of Victory | O/U 10.5% | ||
| Tennessee | Bill Hagerty (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| Marquita Bradshaw (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Hagerty Margin of Victory | O/U 21.5% | ||
| Texas | Ken Paxton (R) | +155 | 35% |
| James Talarico (D) | -185 | 65% | |
| Virginia | Bert Mizusawa (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Mark Warner (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Warner Margin of Victory | O/U 21.5% | ||
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Capito Margin of Victory | O/U 32.5% | ||
| Wyoming | Harriet Hageman (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| James W. Byrd (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Hageman Margin of Victory | O/U 33.5% |
--- - T C Jackson, Gambling911.com
