Written by :
t c jackson
Published on :
DETROIT (Gambling911.com) - It seems like just yesterday Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton was a pretty decent sized underdog to win the Kansas senate race. Fast forward a few weeks and Hamilton is now the -135 favorite to win over Republican Roger Marshall.
A shocking new poll has Hamilton ahead of Marshall by 10 points.
He's up 54% to 44% in a Washington post survey that came out on Friday. Hamilton was up 50% to 47% in an Emerson poll released this same day.
The Washington Post survey is likely a bit of an outlier. Pollsters at the newspaper and George Mason University acknowledged the results could have overestimated Democratic support because Democrats were far more enthusiastic than Republicans to respond to the survey.
Biggest Moves:
- Kansas is now a tossup. Roger Marshall (R) went from a -180 favorite to -115 and on Friday would pay out even odds, and Adam Hamilton (D) moved from +150 to -115, and by Friday was the -135 favorite. This is the only Senate race where the favorite’s lead disappeared completely.
- South Carolina tightened the most. Darline Graham (R) went from -600 to -275, which drops her implied probability from 86% to 73%. Annie Andrews (D) moved from +400 to +215.
- Louisiana: Julia Letlow (R) went from -4000 to -1600, a drop from 98% to 94%.
- Florida (Special): Ashley Moody (R) went from -1600 to -1000, a drop from 94% to 91%.
- Texas moved toward the Democrat. James Talarico (D) went from -185 to -220, which raises him from 65% to 69%. Ken Paxton (R) moved from +155 to +180.
Smaller Moves:
| Race | Candidate | Oct 22 → Oct 29 | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Peltola (D) | -325 → -250 | 76% → 71% |
| Nebraska | Ricketts (R) | -300 → -250 | 75% → 71% |
| Michigan | El-Sayed (M) | -275 → -250 | 73% → 71% |
| Maine | Jackson (D) | -175 → -165 | 64% → 62% |
| Minnesota | Flanagan (D) | -1400 → -1000 | 93% → 91% |
| Arkansas | Cotton (R) | -2500 → -2000 | 96% → 95% |
| Mississippi | Hyde-Smith (R) | -1000 → -1200 | 91% → 92% |
| Iowa | Hinson (R) | -140 → -145 | 58% → 59% |
Margin-of-Victory Moves:
| Race | Change |
|---|---|
| North Carolina | Cooper’s line is new this week, at O/U 14.5% |
| South Dakota | Rounds 10.5% → 14.5% |
| Georgia | Ossoff 9.5% → 11.5% |
| Minnesota | Flanagan 6.5% → 8.5% |
| Alabama | Moore 19.5% → 18.5% |
| Arkansas | Cotton 15.5% → 14.5% |
| Florida (Special) | Moody 7.5% → 6.5% |
| State | Candidate | Odds | Probability |
| Alabama | Barry Moore (R) | -5000 | 98% |
| Everett Weiss (D) | +1600 | 2% | |
| Moore Margin of Victory | O/U 18.5% | ||
| Alaska | Dan Sullivan (R) | +200 | 29% |
| Mary Peltola (D) | -250 | 71% | |
| Arkansas | Tom Cotton (R) | -2000 | 95% |
| Hallie Schoffner (D) | +1000 | 5% | |
| Cotton Margin of Victory | O/U 14.5% | ||
| Colorado | Mark Baisley (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| John Hickenlooper (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Hickenlooper Margin of Victory | O/U 22.5% | ||
| Delaware | Michael Katz (R) | +4000 | 1% |
| Chris Coons (D) | -20000 | 99% | |
| Coons Margin of Victory | O/U 28.5% | ||
| Florida (Special) | Ashley Moody (R) | -1000 | 91% |
| Angie Nixon (D) | +600 | 9% | |
| Moody Margin of Victory | O/U 6.5% | ||
| Georgia | Mike Collins (R) | +1600 | 2% |
| Jon Ossoff (D) | -5000 | 98% | |
| Ossoff Margin of Victory | O/U 11.5% | ||
| Idaho | Jim Risch (R) | -1800 | 95% |
| David Roth (D) | +10000 | 1% | |
| Todd Achilles (I) | +900 | 4% | |
| Risch Margin of Victory | O/U 18.5% | ||
| Illinois | Don Tracy (R) | +4000 | 1% |
| Juliana Stratton (D) | -20000 | 99% | |
| Stratton Margin of Victory | O/U 22.5% | ||
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson (R) | -145 | 59% |
| Josh Turek (D) | +115 | 41% | |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall (R) | -115 | 50% |
| Adam Hamilton (D) | -115 | 50% | |
| Kentucky | Andy Barr (R) | -4000 | 98% |
| Charles Booker (D) | +1500 | 2% | |
| Barr Margin of Victory | O/U 20.5% | ||
| Louisiana | Julia Letlow (R) | -1600 | 94% |
| Jamie Davis (D) | +800 | 6% | |
| Maine | Susan Collins (R) | +135 | 38% |
| Troy Jackson (D) | -165 | 62% | |
| Massachusetts | John Deaton (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Ed Markey (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Markey Margin of Victory | O/U 32.5% | ||
| Michigan | Mike Rogers (R) | +200 | 29% |
| Abdul El-Sayed (M) | -250 | 71% | |
| Minnesota | Michele Tafoya (R) | +600 | 9% |
| Peggy Flanagan (D) | -1000 | 91% | |
| Flanagan Margin of Victory | O/U 8.5% | ||
| Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | -1200 | 92% |
| Scott Colom (D) | +650 | 8% | |
| Hyde-Smith Margin of Victory | O/U 7.5% | ||
| Montana | Kurt Alme (R) | -2000 | 95% |
| Alani Bankhead (D) | +5000 | 1% | |
| Seth Bodnar (I) | +1000 | 4% | |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts (R) | -250 | 71% |
| Dan Osborn (I) | +200 | 29% | |
| New Hampshire | John Sununu (R) | +700 | 7% |
| Chris Pappas (D) | -1400 | 93% | |
| Pappas Margin of Victory | O/U 8.5% | ||
| New Jersey | Justin Murphy (R) | +1800 | 1% |
| Cory Booker (D) | -7500 | 99% | |
| Booker Margin of Victory | O/U 24.5% | ||
| New Mexico | Larry Marker (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Ben Ray Lujan (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Lujan Margin of Victory | O/U 20.5% | ||
| North Carolina | Michael Whatley (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Roy Cooper (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Cooper Margin of Victory | O/U 14.5% | ||
| Ohio (Special) | Jon Husted (R) | +185 | 31% |
| Sherrod Brown (D) | -225 | 69% | |
| Oklahoma | Kevin Hern (R) | -5000 | 98% |
| N'kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) | +1600 | 2% | |
| Hern Margin of Victory | O/U 23.5% | ||
| Oregon | David Brock Smith (R) | +1600 | 2% |
| Jeff Merkley (D) | -5000 | 98% | |
| Merkley Margin of Victory | O/U 23.5% | ||
| Rhode Island | Raymond McKay (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Jack Reed (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Reed Margin of Victory | O/U 30.5% | ||
| South Carolina | Darline Graham (R) | -275 | 73% |
| Annie Andrews (D) | +215 | 27% | |
| Graham Margin of Victory | O/U 4.5% | ||
| South Dakota | Mike Rounds (R) | -2000 | 95% |
| Brian Bengs (I) | +1000 | 5% | |
| Rounds Margin of Victory | O/U 14.5% | ||
| Tennessee | Bill Hagerty (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| Marquita Bradshaw (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Hagerty Margin of Victory | O/U 21.5% | ||
| Texas | Ken Paxton (R) | +180 | 31% |
| James Talarico (D) | -220 | 69% | |
| Virginia | Bert Mizusawa (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Mark Warner (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Warner Margin of Victory | O/U 21.5% | ||
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Capito Margin of Victory | O/U 32.5% | ||
| Wyoming | Harriet Hageman (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| James W. Byrd (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Hageman Margin of Victory | O/U 33.5% | 0 |
- T C Jackson, Gambling911.com
