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DETROIT (Gambling911.com) - Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads former Rep. Mike Rogers 51% to 47% in the Michigan Senate Race, YouGov’s survey found (updated Nov. 1). El-Sayed had ticked up slightly in the odds to -300. Rogers pays $240 for every $100 bet should he win.
The YouGov poll came out prior to El-Sayed’s former opponent in the U.S. Senate primary, Haley Stevens, stunning party officials Sunday by endorsing Rogers as Democratic tensions boiled over days before the election that could determine the balance of power on Capitol Hill. The current odds, however, show El-Sayed's chances have improved over the course of four days when he was previously listed as a -250 favorite.
Stevens endorsed Rogers after attending a Detroit church service with him. The remarkable show of support for the President Donald Trump-backed candidate in the tightly contested race comes after she was uninvited to a joint event the same day with El-Sayed, who defeated the congresswoman by a slim margin in the August primary.
“Our Democratic nominee for Senate said I was no longer welcome in his campaign and that I should stay away,” Stevens said in a video announcing the endorsement, which led her top aide to quit. “And he’s right. And that’s why I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate today.”
El-Sayed dismissed the endorsement when asked about it by reporters later Sunday, saying he’s focused on issues voters care about, such as the high cost of living.
“At the end of the day I actually don’t think about Haley Stevens,” he said, adding later: “None of this matters.”
All Odds Below Were as of October 29
Smaller Moves:
| Race | Candidate | Oct 22 → Oct 29 | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Peltola (D) | -325 → -250 | 76% → 71% |
| Nebraska | Ricketts (R) | -300 → -250 | 75% → 71% |
| Michigan | El-Sayed (M) | -275 → -250 | 73% → 71% |
| Maine | Jackson (D) | -175 → -165 | 64% → 62% |
| Minnesota | Flanagan (D) | -1400 → -1000 | 93% → 91% |
| Arkansas | Cotton (R) | -2500 → -2000 | 96% → 95% |
| Mississippi | Hyde-Smith (R) | -1000 → -1200 | 91% → 92% |
| Iowa | Hinson (R) | -140 → -145 | 58% → 59% |
Margin-of-Victory Moves:
| Race | Change |
|---|---|
| North Carolina | Cooper’s line is new this week, at O/U 14.5% |
| South Dakota | Rounds 10.5% → 14.5% |
| Georgia | Ossoff 9.5% → 11.5% |
| Minnesota | Flanagan 6.5% → 8.5% |
| Alabama | Moore 19.5% → 18.5% |
| Arkansas | Cotton 15.5% → 14.5% |
| Florida (Special) | Moody 7.5% → 6.5% |
| State | Candidate | Odds | Probability |
| Alabama | Barry Moore (R) | -5000 | 98% |
| Everett Weiss (D) | +1600 | 2% | |
| Moore Margin of Victory | O/U 18.5% | ||
| Alaska | Dan Sullivan (R) | +200 | 29% |
| Mary Peltola (D) | -250 | 71% | |
| Arkansas | Tom Cotton (R) | -2000 | 95% |
| Hallie Schoffner (D) | +1000 | 5% | |
| Cotton Margin of Victory | O/U 14.5% | ||
| Colorado | Mark Baisley (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| John Hickenlooper (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Hickenlooper Margin of Victory | O/U 22.5% | ||
| Delaware | Michael Katz (R) | +4000 | 1% |
| Chris Coons (D) | -20000 | 99% | |
| Coons Margin of Victory | O/U 28.5% | ||
| Florida (Special) | Ashley Moody (R) | -1000 | 91% |
| Angie Nixon (D) | +600 | 9% | |
| Moody Margin of Victory | O/U 6.5% | ||
| Georgia | Mike Collins (R) | +1600 | 2% |
| Jon Ossoff (D) | -5000 | 98% | |
| Ossoff Margin of Victory | O/U 11.5% | ||
| Idaho | Jim Risch (R) | -1800 | 95% |
| David Roth (D) | +10000 | 1% | |
| Todd Achilles (I) | +900 | 4% | |
| Risch Margin of Victory | O/U 18.5% | ||
| Illinois | Don Tracy (R) | +4000 | 1% |
| Juliana Stratton (D) | -20000 | 99% | |
| Stratton Margin of Victory | O/U 22.5% | ||
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson (R) | -145 | 59% |
| Josh Turek (D) | +115 | 41% | |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall (R) | -115 | 50% |
| Adam Hamilton (D) | -115 | 50% | |
| Kentucky | Andy Barr (R) | -4000 | 98% |
| Charles Booker (D) | +1500 | 2% | |
| Barr Margin of Victory | O/U 20.5% | ||
| Louisiana | Julia Letlow (R) | -1600 | 94% |
| Jamie Davis (D) | +800 | 6% | |
| Maine | Susan Collins (R) | +135 | 38% |
| Troy Jackson (D) | -165 | 62% | |
| Massachusetts | John Deaton (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Ed Markey (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Markey Margin of Victory | O/U 32.5% | ||
| Michigan | Mike Rogers (R) | +200 | 29% |
| Abdul El-Sayed (M) | -250 | 71% | |
| Minnesota | Michele Tafoya (R) | +600 | 9% |
| Peggy Flanagan (D) | -1000 | 91% | |
| Flanagan Margin of Victory | O/U 8.5% | ||
| Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | -1200 | 92% |
| Scott Colom (D) | +650 | 8% | |
| Hyde-Smith Margin of Victory | O/U 7.5% | ||
| Montana | Kurt Alme (R) | -2000 | 95% |
| Alani Bankhead (D) | +5000 | 1% | |
| Seth Bodnar (I) | +1000 | 4% | |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts (R) | -250 | 71% |
| Dan Osborn (I) | +200 | 29% | |
| New Hampshire | John Sununu (R) | +700 | 7% |
| Chris Pappas (D) | -1400 | 93% | |
| Pappas Margin of Victory | O/U 8.5% | ||
| New Jersey | Justin Murphy (R) | +1800 | 1% |
| Cory Booker (D) | -7500 | 99% | |
| Booker Margin of Victory | O/U 24.5% | ||
| New Mexico | Larry Marker (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Ben Ray Lujan (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Lujan Margin of Victory | O/U 20.5% | ||
| North Carolina | Michael Whatley (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Roy Cooper (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Cooper Margin of Victory | O/U 14.5% | ||
| Ohio (Special) | Jon Husted (R) | +185 | 31% |
| Sherrod Brown (D) | -225 | 69% | |
| Oklahoma | Kevin Hern (R) | -5000 | 98% |
| N'kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) | +1600 | 2% | |
| Hern Margin of Victory | O/U 23.5% | ||
| Oregon | David Brock Smith (R) | +1600 | 2% |
| Jeff Merkley (D) | -5000 | 98% | |
| Merkley Margin of Victory | O/U 23.5% | ||
| Rhode Island | Raymond McKay (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Jack Reed (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Reed Margin of Victory | O/U 30.5% | ||
| South Carolina | Darline Graham (R) | -275 | 73% |
| Annie Andrews (D) | +215 | 27% | |
| Graham Margin of Victory | O/U 4.5% | ||
| South Dakota | Mike Rounds (R) | -2000 | 95% |
| Brian Bengs (I) | +1000 | 5% | |
| Rounds Margin of Victory | O/U 14.5% | ||
| Tennessee | Bill Hagerty (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| Marquita Bradshaw (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Hagerty Margin of Victory | O/U 21.5% | ||
| Texas | Ken Paxton (R) | +180 | 31% |
| James Talarico (D) | -220 | 69% | |
| Virginia | Bert Mizusawa (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Mark Warner (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Warner Margin of Victory | O/U 21.5% | ||
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Capito Margin of Victory | O/U 32.5% | ||
| Wyoming | Harriet Hageman (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| James W. Byrd (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Hageman Margin of Victory | O/U 33.5% | 0 |
- T C Jackson, Gambling911.com
