Written by :
Published on :
We have combined our Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Giants and Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots betting odds into one piece as both games feature double digit home favorites. The Giants and Patriots were ranked number 2 and number 3, respectively, by Gambling911.com this week.
If we were to put ourselves in the shoes of the odds makers, we know that the sports bettor will instinctively be looking to get down on these two favorites. If our belief is that the game is going to be a blowout, we'll create a big enough overlay to get some action on the underdog. If we think the game is going to be somewhat tighter, we would want to create only a slight overlay.
So now it's just a matter of determining the size of the overlay on these two lines.
First, the Bengals vs. Giants odds. Amazingly, Gambling911.com has determined there should be a line of Giants -14 ½ on this game. Some books have made the Giants a -14 favorite, others have them at -13 and still others have a line of -13 ½. As an FYI, BetUS.com has the Giants at -13.
75 percent of the betting public was on the Giants in this line range, which makes sense because, if the line would have been any lower, all the action would be going New York's way. It seems clear that the bookies are hedging their bets here and trying to get enough action on the Bengals just in case. We are thinking Giants managed to just squeak by with a cover here as this line is right on the money.
The Dolphins vs. Patriots game has New England at Patriots -12 ½ across the board. Despite a few variances (we've seen a -13 and we've seen a -12 at BetOnline.com), the line has remained relatively steady up until Friday and there is no clear sign it is moving in any one direction. Money line action with a $600 payout for every $100 bet on the Dolphins is somewhat heavy.
There is a pretty large underlay here since Gambling911.com sees this line being more around -20 ½. With the Patriots as good as they are, we think New England can easily overcome a 12 point line. We could see odds move up to -14 here.
While New England manhandled Miami last year, gamblers will be looking at the overall picture and how the Dolphins have either won or been able to cover within 14 points in the previous 8 games. The perception is also that the Dolphins may be a little better than last year's team while the Patriots are not nearly as good without Tom Brady as quarterback.
We are not convinced, and our opinion in this scenario is that New England should be able to overcome the -12 line. This might be a good time to jump all over that one as we suspect that line won't last too much longer.
