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This Packers vs. Saints free pick is courtesy of Pregame.com.
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The NFL regular season is here, and what better matchup to have first on our plates than a rematch of last years NFC Championship. The Super Bowl winning New Orleans Saints welcome in the Minnesota Vikings in a much anticipated game on NBC at 8:30 EDT tonight. The Saints are 5 point home favorites, with a total of 48 points expected tonight.
New Orleans is ready to open up defense of their Super Bowl trophy. It's only fitting that the Saints face off against the Vikings, the team they beat last year in the NFC Championship. New Orleans is certain to have targets on their back all year long, but they can find comfort in the fact that the past 10 Super Bowl champions have won their season opener SU. On the flip side, the Saints are looking to beat the Vikings in the regular season for the 1st time since 2001. QB and Super Bowl MVP Drew Brees is the clear leader of this team, and he's coming off a fantastic season. Brees threw for 4,388 YDS while completing better than 70% of his passes. Brees accounted for 36 TD's against only 11 INT's last year. Brees oversaw one of the most dynamic offenses in recent history, as the Saints averaged 31.9 PPG last year while averaging more than 400 YPG, both league highs. The biggest concern for New Orleans is their defense, as their are some question marks with this unit. Along with defections and injuries, the Saints simply can't expect 39 takeaways this year. New Orleans is 11-20 SU in season openers played in front of their home fans.
The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September. The Under is 8-3 in their last 11 games in Week 1.
Revenge is sweep, and Minnesota has certainly had plenty of time to think about their OT loss to the Saints in the NFC Championship last year. The Vikings lost 28-31 despite dominating the game from start to finish. Minnesota accumulated 475 total yards, 200 YDS more than the Saints, in defeat. The Vikings were undone with 5 costly turnovers, easily the biggest reason they lost the NFC Championship. Besides the revenge factor, this game tonight is all about Brett Favre. Favre has decided to come back for 1 more year, and he makes the Vikings an instant Super Bowl QB with him under center. Favre will be making his 286th consecutive start tonight, an NFL record. RB Adrian Peterson is also looking forward to tonight, as he rushed for 3 TD's against the Saints in the playoffs last year. Unfortunately, Peterson had 2 critical lost fumbles that proved costly. Head Coach Brad Childress is 3-1 SU in season openers with the Vikings. Overall, Minnesota is 28-20-1 SU in their past 49 season openers.
The Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 1. The Under is 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.
Pregame.com projects the final score to be 31-24 in favor of the New Orleans Saints. The OVER 48 points is the Total of the Day!
