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The Connecticut Huskies vs. Louisville Cardinals betting odds opened at Louisville -3 and that line has since moved up to -3 ½ and as high as -4 at betED.com.
Just shy of 75 percent of the action was coming in on Louisville but we should point out that heavy action was also coming in on the Huskies money line, which would pay $145 for every $100 bet if Connecticut wins outright.
Connecticut has an edge in many aspects of this matchup. The line on this game should be Louisville -2 based on a Gambling911.com analysis.
Connecticut won by 4 points last year at home against Louisville. The Huskies were a +3 underdog.
So what, if anything, has changed since last season?
When UConn met Louisville last year, the results of the game summed up both team's seasons in a nutshell. The Huskies won a squeaker, in part because of a controversial play where Larry Taylor scored on a punt return after appearing to call for a fair catch. UConn won a share of the Big East title; Louisville missed out on a bowl game.
A lot has changed since last October. Taylor's playing in Canada. Andre Dixon, who scored the winning touchdown with 1:32 to play, is coming back from an injury and sits behind Donald Brown.
And the Louisville team that awaits this week is more confident that the one the team faced a year ago, when the Cardinals were a preseason BCS favorite that was dealing with a disappointing campaign spiraling out of control. Instead, Steve Kragthorpe's squad is coming off back to back impressive over Tennessee Tech and Kansas State. Also in that school's favor: it's playing at home, not on the torn up turf in rain-soaked Rentschler Field as it did a year ago.
What hasn't changed so far, however, is the Huskies' toughness. When the chips are down and it's a make or break situation, UConn is two for two this season in finding a way to win.
The team looked awful in the rain against Temple, but came back to force overtime and won on the road. Against Baylor last week, the Huskies hung tough at home with a key stop in the final minute to hang on for a three-point win.
The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
They are also 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
There are not a whole lot of stats that really grab us on the Louisville side. They have beaten two teams at home that were considered better than the Cardinals: Texas Tech and Kansas State. They lost badly to Kentucky, another team considered better than the Cardinals even though Louisville was a -3 ½ favorite.
This is yet another tough game to bet. There are enough angles going in UConn's favor as there are in Louisville's favor and the line itself is pretty much right where it should be on this matchup.
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Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
