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FRANKFORT, Ky. (Gambling911.com) - Kentucky is suddenly in play this midterm election season, thanks to a fiercely contested congressional race. All eyes will be on Lexington in the coming days, where Saturday's Breeders' Cup won't be the only major event making headlines. With Election Day just around the corner, the battle for Kentucky's 6th Congressional District is generating plenty of excitement of its own.
Kentucky-06: Zach Dembo (D) is now favored at -125. Ralph Alvarado (R) went from -275 to -105.
The latest publicly reported polls show Democrat Zach Dembo leading Republican Ralph Alvarado by between 3 and 9 percentage points, although Democratic sponsors, national election forecasters, and oddsmakers have this one as a toss-up in what was widely considered to be a safe Republican seat.
The most recent survey, conducted October 19–20 by Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC, reported a six-point Dembo advantage.
The seat is currently held by Republican Andy Barr, who is running for the U.S. Senate rather than seeking another House term.
KY-06 covers much of central Kentucky, including Lexington, the district's largest city and a major university center, as well as Kentucky's capital of Frankfort. Richmond, home to Eastern Kentucky University, is also covered within this district.
Donald Trump carried the district by approximately 15 percentage points in 2024.
Midterm House Odds as of October 29
All odds courtesy of BetOnline here
| District | Candidate | Odds | Probability |
| Alabama-02 | Rhett Marques (R) | -150 | 60% |
| Shomari Figures (D) | +120 | 40% | |
| Arizona-01 | Jay Feely (R) | +300 | 20% |
| Amish Shah (D) | -400 | 80% | |
| Arizona-02 | Eli Crane (R) | -225 | 69% |
| Jonathan Nez (D) | +185 | 31% | |
| Arizona-06 | Juan Ciscomani (R) | +600 | 9% |
| JoAnna Mendoza (D) | -1000 | 91% | |
| Arkansas-02 | French Hill (R) | -500 | 83% |
| Chris Jones (D) | +375 | 17% | |
| California-04 | Mike Thompson (D) | -170 | 63% |
| Eric Jones (D) | +140 | 37% | |
| California-07 | Doris Matsui (D) | -200 | 67% |
| Mai Vang (D) | +160 | 33% | |
| California-14 | Aisha Wahab (D) | -2000 | 95% |
| Melissa Hernandez (D) | +1000 | 5% | |
| California-22 | David Valadao (R) | +750 | 6% |
| Randy Villegas (D) | -1500 | 94% | |
| California-34 | Angela Gonzales-Torres (D) | -325 | 76% |
| Jimmy Gomez (D) | +250 | 24% | |
| California-40 | Ken Calvert (R) | -105 | 44% |
| Young Kim (R) | -125 | 56% | |
| Colorado-03 | Jeff Hurd (R) | -250 | 71% |
| Dwayne Romero (D) | +200 | 29% | |
| Colorado-04 | Lauren Boebert (R) | -160 | 62% |
| Eileen Laubacher (D) | +130 | 38% | |
| Colorado-05 | Jeff Crank (R) | -155 | 61% |
| Jessica Killin (D) | +125 | 39% | |
| Colorado-08 | Gabe Evans (R) | +550 | 10% |
| Manny Rutinel (D) | -900 | 90% | |
| Florida-04 | Aaron Bean (R) | -700 | 88% |
| LaShonda Holloway (D) | +450 | 12% | |
| Florida-07 | Ryan Elijah (R) | -300 | 75% |
| Bale Dalton (D) | +240 | 25% | |
| Florida-09 | Dan Green (R) | -300 | 75% |
| Darren Soto (D) | +240 | 25% | |
| Florida-11 | Joe Strada (R) | -800 | 89% |
| James Pericola (D) | +500 | 11% | |
| Florida-13 | Anna Paulina Luna (R) | -300 | 75% |
| Leela Gray (D) | +240 | 25% | |
| Florida-14 | Kathy Castor (D) | -250 | 71% |
| Mike Beltran (R) | +200 | 29% | |
| Florida-21 | Brian Mast (R) | -900 | 90% |
| James Martin (D) | +550 | 10% | |
| Florida-22 | Casey Askar (R) | +175 | 32% |
| Pia Dandiya (D) | -215 | 68% | |
| Florida-25 | Jared Moskowitz (D) | -325 | 76% |
| Scott Singer (R) | +250 | 24% | |
| Florida-27 | Maria Elvira Salazar (R) | -215 | 68% |
| Elliott Rodriguez (D) | +175 | 32% | |
| Indiana-05 | Victoria Spartz (R) | -600 | 86% |
| J.D. Ford (D) | +400 | 14% | |
| Iowa-01 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) | +800 | 6% |
| Christina Bohannan (D) | -1600 | 94% | |
| Iowa-02 | Lindsay James (D) | -300 | 75% |
| Joe Mitchell (R) | +240 | 25% | |
| Iowa-03 | Zach Nunn (R) | +450 | 12% |
| Sarah Trone Garriott (D) | -700 | 88% | |
| Kansas-02 | Derek Schmidt (R) | -500 | 83% |
| Don Coover (D) | +375 | 17% | |
| Kentucky-06 | Ralph Alvarado (R) | -105 | 44% |
| Zach Dembo (D) | -125 | 56% | |
| Maine-02 | Paul LePage (R) | -140 | 58% |
| Matt Dunlap (D) | +110 | 42% | |
| Michigan-04 | Bill Huizenga (R) | +120 | 40% |
| Sean McCann (D) | -150 | 60% | |
| Michigan-07 | William Lawrence (D) | -300 | 75% |
| Tom Barrett (R) | +240 | 25% | |
| Michigan-10 | Christina Hines (D) | -250 | 71% |
| Michael Bouchard Jr. (R) | +200 | 29% | |
| Minnesota-01 | Brad Finstad (R) | -160 | 62% |
| Jake Johnson (D) | +130 | 38% | |
| Missouri-02 | Ann Wagner (R) | -225 | 69% |
| Fred Wellman (D) | +185 | 31% | |
| Montana-01 | Aaron Flint (R) | -130 | 57% |
| Sam Forstag (D) | +100 | 43% | |
| Nebraska-01 | Mike Flood (R) | -400 | 80% |
| Chris Backemeyer (D) | +300 | 20% | |
| Nevada-02 | David Flippo (R) | -165 | 62% |
| Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) | +135 | 38% | |
| New Jersey-02 | Jeff Van Drew (R) | -275 | 73% |
| Zack Mullock (D) | +215 | 27% | |
| New Jersey-07 | Thomas Kean Jr. (R) | +1000 | 5% |
| Rebecca Bennett (D) | -2000 | 95% | |
| New York-01 | Nick Lalota (R) | -400 | 80% |
| Chris Gallant (D) | +300 | 20% | |
| New York-02 | Andrew Garbarino (R) | -400 | 80% |
| Patrick Halpin (D) | +300 | 20% | |
| New York-17 | Mike Lawler (R) | +125 | 39% |
| Cait Conley (D) | -155 | 61% | |
| New York-21 | Anthony Constantino (R) | -225 | 69% |
| Blake Gendebien (D) | +185 | 31% | |
| North Carolina-01 | Don Davis (D) | -700 | 88% |
| Laurie Buckhout (R) | +450 | 12% | |
| North Carolina-03 | Greg Murphy (R) | -160 | 62% |
| Raymond Smith Jr. (D) | +130 | 38% | |
| North Carolina-07 | David Rouzer (R) | -400 | 80% |
| Kim Hardy (D) | +300 | 20% | |
| North Carolina-09 | Richard Hudson (R) | -250 | 71% |
| Richard Ojeda (D) | +200 | 29% | |
| North Carolina-11 | Jamie Ager (D) | -1000 | 91% |
| Jennifer Balkcom (R) | +600 | 9% | |
| North Carolina-13 | Brad Knott (R) | -180 | 64% |
| Paul Barringer (D) | +150 | 36% | |
| Ohio-07 | Brian Poindexter (D) | -800 | 89% |
| Max Miller (R) | +500 | 11% | |
| Ohio-09 | Marcy Kaptur (D) | -400 | 80% |
| Derek Merrin (R) | +300 | 20% | |
| Ohio-10 | Mike Turner (R) | -300 | 75% |
| Kristina Knickerbocker (D) | +240 | 25% | |
| Ohio-15 | Mike Carey (R) | -200 | 67% |
| Don Leonard (D) | +160 | 33% | |
| Pennsylvania-01 | Brian Fitzpatrick (R) | -135 | 57% |
| Bob Harvie (D) | +105 | 43% | |
| Pennsylvania-07 | Ryan Mackenzie (R) | +600 | 9% |
| Bob Brooks (D) | -1000 | 91% | |
| Pennsylvania-08 | Rob Bresnahan (R) | +450 | 12% |
| Paige Cognetti (D) | -700 | 88% | |
| Pennsylvania-10 | Scott Perry (R) | +375 | 17% |
| Janelle Stelson (D) | -500 | 83% | |
| South Carolina-01 | Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) | -210 | 68% |
| Nancy S. Lacore (D) | +170 | 32% | |
| Tennessee-09 | Brent Taylor (R) | -500 | 83% |
| Justin Pearson (D) | +375 | 17% | |
| Texas-09 | Alex Mealer (R) | -350 | 78% |
| Leticia Gutierrez (D) | +275 | 22% | |
| Texas-15 | Bobby Pulido (D) | -900 | 90% |
| Monica De La Cruz (R) | +500 | 10% | |
| Texas-23 | Brandon Herrera (R) | -165 | 62% |
| Katy Padilla Stout (D) | +135 | 38% | |
| Texas-34 | Vicente Gonzalez (D) | -1200 | 92% |
| Eric Flores (R) | +650 | 8% | |
| Texas-35 | Johnny C. Garcia (D) | -275 | 73% |
| Carlos De La Cruz (R) | +215 | 27% | |
| Virginia-01 | Rob Wittman (R) | +160 | 33% |
| Shannon Taylor (D) | -200 | 67% | |
| Virginia-02 | Elaine Luria (D) | -1400 | 93% |
| Jen Kiggans (R) | +700 | 7% | |
| Virginia-05 | John McGuire (R) | -160 | 62% |
| Tom Perriello (D) | +130 | 38% | |
| Washington-03 | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) | -1200 | 92% |
| John Braun (R) | +650 | 8% | |
| Washington-05 | Michael Baumgartner (R) | -800 | 89% |
| Carmela Conroy (D) | +500 | 11% | |
| Wisconsin-01 | Bryan Steil (R) | -130 | 57% |
| Mitchell Berman (D) | +100 | 43% | |
| Wisconsin-03 | Rebecca Cooke (D) | -700 | 88% |
| Derrick Van Orden (R) | +450 | 12% |
- T C Jackson, Gambling911.com
