Oscar Locks 2023 - These Will Cost You Though

Written by:
Jordan Bach
Published on:

These are the big Academy Awards "locks" where the favorite is almost guaranteed to win.  The problem is, the risk versus reward is rather extreme.  For example, -1000 means that a $100 bet will pay out $10.  Sure, you're almost certain to walk off with a $10 profit, but you also need to be able to afford the off chance of losing that $100.


The good news for gamblers is there aren't a whole lot of high priced favorites.  This means more competitive categories and the potential for higher payouts.

Rot     95th Academy Awards - Best Supporting Actor     Moneyline
501     Ke H. Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once         -5000
502     Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin         +1200
505     Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway         +2800
506     Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin         +1200
507     Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans         +3300

Ke H. Quan losing is about as likely as you winning the lottery.  Let that one sink in.

There's only one problem.  You'll need to bet $500 just to win $10.  Ouch.  Many books limit Oscar bets to a maximum of $250 or less.

Rot     95th Academy Awards - Best Cinematography     Moneyline
625     All Quiet on the Western Front         -1000
626     Elvis         +400
627     Empire of Light         +700
628     TAR         +2200
629     Bardo or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths         +3300

All Quiet on the Western Front is a "lock".  You'll never see the top-ranked MLB team with the best pitcher in the league starting anywhere close to a -1000 favorite against the worst team with the worst starter.  That's how big a favorite -1000 represents.  But we'd still put this one at around an 85% chance of happening.  Remember those big snow storms that were supposed to happen when we were kids and the storm went out to sea?  Well...

Rot     95th Academy Awards - Best Picture     Moneyline
401     The Fabelmans         +1600
403     TAR         +3500
404     Everything Everywhere All at Once         -1500
408     Women Talking         +10000
411     The Banshees of Inisherin         +1500
417     Top Gun: Maverick         +1500
419     Elvis         +10000
421     Triangle of Sadness         +10000
422     Avatar: The Way of Water         +10000
424     All Quiet on the Western Front         +800

This year's Best Picture category features a rare lock.  Typically this category has at least two competitive options.  Here we have "Everything Everywhere All at Once" coming in at -1500.

More Oscar 2023 Locks

These are listed in order from largest to smallest.

Rot     95th Academy Awards - Best Visual Effects     Moneyline
680     Avatar: The Way of Water         -3000
681     Top Gun: Maverick         +900
682     Black Panther: Wakanda Forever         +800
683     All Quiet on the Western Front         +2000
684     The Batman         +3300

Rot     95th Academy Awards - Best International Feature Film     Moneyline
645     All Quiet on the Western Front         -2200
646     EO         +1200
647     Argentina, 1985         +600
648     The Quiet Girl         +1200
649     Close         +3300

Rot     95th Academy Awards - Best Animated Feature     Moneyline
620     Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio         -2500
621     Marcel the Shell with Shoes On         +1000
622     Puss in Boots: The Last Wish         +900
623     Turning Red         +1500
624     The Sea Beast         +2000

Rot     95th Academy Awards - Best Director     Moneyline
301     Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans         +450
304     Daniel Kwan - Everywhere Everything All at Once         -1500
308     Todd Field - TAR         +1400
313     Ruben Ostlund - Triangle of Sadness         +5000
323     Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin         +1200

- Jordan Bach, Gambling911.com

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