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Two struggling teams take each other on Sunday afternoon as the New England Patriots head to the Las Vegas Raiders. Las Vegas is a -2.5 favorite in this one after opening at -3.
Sagarin Overlay/Underlay Detector: Las Vegas -0.09 (Pick'em) - 2.5 to 3 overlay
Recent Head to Head Historic Trends: Las Vegas won last year by 6 points at home.
Line Movement Opinion and Action: At Bookmaker, the line dropped from +3 to +2.5 Saturday and had remained at +2.5 into Sunday with the dog New England seeing around 65% of the action.
New England comes into this game with a dismal 1-4 record both Straight Up and Against The Spread with odds beginning to shorten on head coach Bill Belichick being the next to get axed. In fact, Belichick's odds (4-1) are only second shortest to Matt Eberflus of the Chicago Bears (+350).
Of greatest concern is New England being dominated (72-3) over the last two games.
Legendary former Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski insisted Belichick is one of the greatest NFL coaches of all time but admits the situation is untenable should the losses continue.
"I would say it’s still too early in the season to make a determination of what’s going on," Gronkowski told Fox News Digital in a recent interview regarding the 1-4 Patriots. "Obviously, there’s a lot of noise, especially after those last two losses, but there’s still 12 games to be played. You cannot base a season off of how it has started on the first five games.
"Yes, it’s a rough start, but you gotta see how they keep improving, you gotta see how it continues, and if it improves, great, he’ll be there, I feel like. But if the domination of losing continues, and getting dominated in and out of games, then I think there’s gonna be something to happen. It’ll only be time to tell for the rest of the season, but I still think it’s too early to determine that"
Quarterback Mac Jones is set to start against Vegas despite his struggles.
"Yeah we're not making any changes," the Pats head coach said when asked during a news conference.
Patriots vs Raiders Predictions | NFL Week 6 Game Analysis & Picks @BetUS_Official https://t.co/FXeeIJgDaN via @YouTube
— gambling911 (@gambling911) October 15, 2023
"Is this an overreaction from Vegas in what I would say was a very coin flip game on Monday night," Jared Smith of BetUS asked in regard to the +3 line that he observed even going over the +3.5 at one point. BetUS, we would note, had yet to move to the +3.5 at any point leading up to the time of this publication.
Las Vegas CRIS called this one "the hot potato game of the week". He asked "Who wants....any part of this game? I mean, get it out of here," he joked.
"When in doubt, when you have two bad teams you take the points," he added. This means bet the underdog Patriots.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
