Written by :
Published on :
The Phoenix Suns sat at the No. 8 spot on the Sagarin Ratings back in Mid-November but had fallen to No. 22 just days before Christmas.
December 22
The Suns owned a record just barely above the .500 mark and had scored more than 112 points just twice in their last seven outings.
They were facing a Sacramento Kings team with a suspect defense but the -2 opening line serves as an enticement for us number geeks. The -2 to -2.5 opening number has delivered for the favorites at a 13-5 Against The Spread clip over these past two weeks. More importantly, we've detected an underlay as our number is Kings 5.72. Underlays in this range are 6-0 ATS so far this season. That's a small number but there haven't been a lot of underlays with an opening line of -2 to -2.5.
80 percent of consensus cappers were backing the Kings, according to internal AcePerHead data.
November 19
The Suns number on Sagarin registered at 92.23. They owned a 6-6 record Straight Up and 5-6-1 Against The Spread. The Suns won four of their last six games overall and face a Jazz team they've gone 8-2 against in their last ten.
Phoenix beat the Jazz at home 131-128 just two days ago.
They opened at -4.5 with the line moving to -5. Gamblers were backing the Jazz at a 72 percent clip.
The dog has gone 6-2 so far this season when the number is +4 or +4.5.
Utah ranks among the bottom tier on Sagarin but the number we get is Phoenix 3.4. That's an overlay of around 1 point and overlays in this number range are 4-0 for the underdog so far this season.
From January onward last season, Phoenix went 11-12 Straight Up playing on the road.
Against teams that were .500 or lower the Suns went 8-2 Straight Up on the road.
We would avoid playing the Suns this day though we're not exactly jumping on board the Jazz either. Just sit this one out.
Over/Under Total Points Scored Prop Bet
Devin Booker
Phoenix Suns
Over(28.5)
-106
Under(28.5)
-124
Eric Gordon
Phoenix Suns
Over(13.5)
-103
Under(13.5)
-127
Grayson Allen
Phoenix Suns
Over(11.5)
-106
Under(11.5)
-124
John Collins
Utah Jazz
Over(14.5)
-117
Under(14.5)
-112
Jordan Clarkson
Utah Jazz
Over(22.5)
-127
Under(22.5)
-103
Jusuf Nurkic
Phoenix Suns
Over(10.5)
-130
Under(10.5)
+100
Kevin Durant
Phoenix Suns
Over(30.5)
-107
Under(30.5)
-122
Keyonte George
Utah Jazz
Over(10.5)
-106
Under(10.5)
-124
Lauri Markkanen
Utah Jazz
Over(23.5)
-118
Under(23.5)
-110
Ochai Agbaji
Utah Jazz
Over(8.5)
-124
Under(8.5)
-105
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
