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You have to go back nearly 45 years to find the Pittsburgh Steelers listed as underdogs by more than 11 points during any regular season, according to the crack research staff at BetOnline.
Pittsburgh is currently a 14-point underdog against Buffalo, which is the largest spread in franchise history.
The Steelers haven’t entered a game as two-touchdown underdogs at any point in Mike Tomlin’s tenure as head coach. They were 12-point underdogs to the Chiefs in last year's playoff game at Arrowhead (which was the biggest spread in Wild Card history), but their highest spread prior to that was being an 11-point underdog against the England Patriots on December 9, 2007 (Tomlin’s first season as head coach).
Sagarin gives the Bills a 28.34 rating. Once we tack on home field advantage and subtract the Steelers 17.91 rating, we get a number of 12.19. That's around a 2-point overlay.
Early indications are that this number is trending upwards as we've seen some flirthing with the 14.5.
Following a hard fought victory against Cincinnati in Week 1, the Steelers have lost three straight games. The team has opted to bench Mitch Trubinsky as a result. Kenny Pickett will start and that's left the oddsmakers unimpressed thus far.
Pickett, 24, was the Steelers' first-round pick in the 2022 NFL draft.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
