The Best Indicator for Upcoming General Election With Betting Markets is BetOnline

Stephanie Rhule of MSNBC has argued that Polymarket is a product of Donald Trump supporter Peter Thiel.  Its betting market, which now shows Trump winning in nearly every swing state, does not even accept U.S. gamblers.

She may be right about its accuracy, or lack thereof. 

More difficult to explain away, however, is BetOnline.  It does take bets from U.S. residents and has been doing so for 25 years now (we visited their office in the summer of 1999 the week they opened).  BetOnline is also NOT associated with Peter Thiel.

The company is probably the largest online gambling site outside of FanDuel and DraftKings, and most definitely bigger than Polymarket.  And, yes, they are legal.  They are licensed by the gaming commission of Panama.

The Drudge Report featured BetOnline's Trump Fulton County booking weight Over/Under prop bet atop its page back when the former president was indicted in Georgia last year.

They are also shattering every record imaginable this political season.

BetOnline.ag first introduced election odds on its website in 2000, and since then, political betting has grown into one of the platform's most popular markets.

"We've been offering political betting options for more than 20 years, so we're not a new kid on the block," BetOnline CEO Eddie Robbins III said. "We have political oddsmakers on our team who are experienced and know how to trade these markets at a professional level."

This week, BetOnline released a true reflection of how folks are betting in each state.

The map may appear crazy on the surface with VP Kamala Harris winning Texas and Ohio while Trump is winning New York and Massachusetts.

The New York outlier can probably be atributed to there being more bets coming in from the New York City area than any other region outside of California, and there are likely a whole lot of so-called "MAGA Bros" placing big bets from this region.  Maybe.

Lots of "MAGA Bros" in and around the Boston area that just happen to be sports bettors and online gamers too.  Massachusetts, we would note, is nearly half and half considering the number there comes in at 52%.

It's crazier still to think that Louisiana comes in at just 51% in favor of Trump.  We could have a situation here and in places like Texas and Ohio where the gambling public originates in cities that are more Democratic leaning like New Orleans, Columbus and Dallas.  Who knows?

What we do know is that these results are purely gambler driven, for the most part anyway.  New York we could have a situation where high stake traders influence the market to some extent.  This is probably true of places like California too (i.e. Silicon Valley high stake players), though that state is firmly in the Harris camp based on BetOnline's map.  Dave Mason of BetOnline previously noted large six figure numbers coming in on Trump.  He does not say where these bets are originating from.

BetOnline clearly explains the betting breakdown.

"It is important to note this is only showing betting data, and may not reflect voter sentiment," they write.

Below are some notes based on the map, which includes all 50 states and Washington DC.

• 28 states have bet more money on Donald Trump to win the election
• 22 states and Washington DC bet more money on Kamala Harris to win the election.
• Here are the five states with the highest percentage on Trump:
  • South Dakota:   91%
  • Arkansas:          84%
  • North Dakota:    81%
  • Wyoming:          81%
  • Montana:           71%
• Here are the five states with the highest percentage on Harris:
  • Rhode Island:    71%
  • California:          70%
  • New Hampshire:65%
  • Vermont:            65%
  • Wisc/Hawaii:     63%
• Here are the two closest states:
  • Louisiana:          51% on Trump
  • Massachusetts: 52% on Trump

One data point not shown on the map as BetOnline.ag is a global brand; 63% of the rest of the world has bet on Trump to win the election.