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Will Barack Obama call on Biden to drop out? Polymarket listed the chance of this happening at a 19% chance probability or +426 odds. The market had attracted around $82,000 in betting since June 28.
The former president, along with the ex-speaker Nancy Pelosi, have reportedly expressed privately their concerns over Biden staying in the race.
CNN referred to Obama's stance as "the worst kept secret in Washington".
Obama’s deepening skepticism about his friend’s ability to win reelection is one of the worst kept secrets in Washington.
When the history of this extraordinary two-week period of American politics is written, the fingerprints of Obama and Pelosi will be far more apparent than currently known, people familiar with the matter tell CNN, as the Democratic elders have served as a guidepost for a party in panic.
"They are watching and waiting for President Biden to reach a decision on his own,” one longtime Democrat close to all of them told CNN, speaking on condition of anonymity to avoid being seen as disrespectful to Biden.
Biden's re-election odds had improved once again Saturday at BetOnline to +350, from an absolute low point of +800 just two days ago during a stretch in which the current president made a serious of gaffes that included calling Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy "President Putin" and his own VP, Kamala Harris, "Vice President Trump". The latter was perhaps more baked in (go figure) as it did little to chance the odds. Biden's heavily watched press conference may have actually helped his cause just a bit.
The Polymarket betting market on Obama asking Biden to get out of the race is not available for wagering in the U.S.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama publicly states that Joe Biden should drop out of the 2024 presidential race before 12:00 AM ET on the first day of the Democratic National Convention, currently scheduled for August 19, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Statements that the Democratic party should nominate another candidate other than Joe Biden will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Statements that are hedged or express ambiguity, such as “We need to consider our options for the nominee” will NOT qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
If the DNC does not begin by August 31, and Barack Obama has not called for Biden to leave the ticket, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Barack Obama or his official representative(s); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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